Talk-Polywell.org

Decided to decouple ZAP from the general Z- Pinch thread. Starting this new one with this article on IEEE Spectrum. ZAP is really close to break even. We will likely see that in 16 months, maybe less. ZAP is my second front runner, after Helion and they are moving very quickly. Their machine is compact enough to be interesting for aerospace applications.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/zap-energy-fusion-reactor

Good article, gives mid 2023 as time target for Q>1 (scientific breakeven). Until engineering breakeven is reached I have put Zap in the maybe tank, whereas Helion, General Fusion, and TAE are in the will be successful group. Z-pinch scaling is so insane and plasma modeling so difficult the device needs to be built to really know (they do have a model for the plasma physics, but it is not a first principles model) because these instabilities are unfriendly to modelers.

Still there is reason to hope and mid 2023 is not far off. Who knows though, Helion may have Polaris up and running by then too.

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Good article, gives mid 2023 as time target for Q>1 (scientific breakeven). Until engineering breakeven is reached I have put Zap in the maybe tank, whereas Helion, General Fusion, and TAE are in the will be successful group. Z-pinch scaling is so insane and plasma modeling so difficult the device needs to be built to really know (they do have a model for the plasma physics, but it is not a first principles model) because these instabilities are unfriendly to modelers.

Still there is reason to hope and mid 2023 is not far off. Who knows though, Helion may have Polaris up and running by then too.

2023 will be an interesting year for sure as will be 2024 and 2025.
As for ZAP, I think that they have a very good shot. FuZE was never meant to achieve 500 kA. It was only built for 300. Yet, their scaling has held up pretty well so far. If FuZE-Q is equally "over- engineered", it could get quite close to power plant relevant conditions. Maybe even 1000 kA, which is only 200 kA shy of the projected ~1200 kA that they need for a practical fusion power plant. Though at those currents, the electrodes might get quite toasty. Getting the electrodes to last long enough for a practical power plant is IMHO where their biggest problems will be. I know that they are planning for a liquid outer electrode which will hopefully solve at least that problem, though it could introduce contamination into the plasma. The inner electrode might end up being a sacrificial one that gets constantly replaced like the lead in a push pencil. It might even be made from graphite.
Anyway, we will see...

SJ,
I see no reason not to be optimistic with you wrt ZAP, MHD has been against them and it is only with the updated models that their success against instabilities can be explained. Now that the updated models show a clear path, why not believe them? You also make a good point that they pushed their old hardware way past its intended range, so maybe there is margin in the new hardware (with some mods to support electronics and power supply). That might accelerate the time to meet engineering Q? As to the sacrificial inner electrode, that solution makes practical sense.

I particularly get excited about space applications that you talk about. It might be that chemical rockets are needed to get to orbit, but after that...

And happy new year to all here!

In 2022 we will hear about the JET 2021 DT-results. If they results are significantly better compared to 1997, then it will probably boost fusion awareness in general.

Hopefully General Fusion will get the large funding they are preparing for in 2022. I would also not be too surprised to learn about new significant funding for TAE Technologies also in 2022.

Tokamak Energy is working to reach their 100 million degrees (funding?) milestone. As they did not reach that target this year they probably will do that in 2022. So 2022 can also be expected to be an interesting fusion year.

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 28, 2021 4:28 am

And happy new year to all here!

Thanks mvanwink5! I also wish A Happy New 2022 Fusion Year for everyone on this forum!

Happy, safe and successful 2022 to everyone from me too!

New paper presented by ZAP at the 2021 Fusion Power Associates meeting in December:

http://www.firefusionpower.org/FPA21-35 ... Levitt.pdf

Fuze achieved 8 x 10^17 keV sec /m3. 10 ^8 neutrons and 1-2 keV ion temperatures (3-4 keV total plasma tem). That is still slightly below Venti performance. But then this is only their 3rd prototype. Still, they are in the keV club now, unlike some of the other major players...

Next step: Fuze-Q for Q (sci) >= 1

Interesting: Fuze-Q is capable of using 3 electrodes. Where is the 3rd electrode and what does it do?

Cool: They now have 3 labs working on various technologies that they will need for a future power plant.
Interesting that they - like Helion- have chosen Everett (and vicinity) as the location for their other two labs. I mean they are almost literally down the street from Helion. Not surprising maybe, since both companies herald from the UW and are generally on friendly terms.

Skipjack wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:30 pm

https://spectrum.ieee.org/zap-energy-fusion-reactor

Only $4 million to build their breakeven device. Amazing. How many times over does that fit into ITER's budget?

Skipjack wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 09, 2022 6:53 am

Interesting: Fuze-Q is capable of using 3 electrodes. Where is the 3rd electrode and what does it do?

The third electrode is the outer wall of the molten LiPb and that should keep the pinch stabilized.
Is a neat idea, and at 4 M$ is a bargain to test, regardless of the end result.

Should they succeed with this design, it will be hard to beat in terms of simplicity and costs for a heat generator.

Should they succeed with this design, it will be hard to beat in terms of simplicity and costs for a heat generator.

The only competitor would be Helion and that is because they have a high efficiency direct conversion from plasma to electric power. SJ has also pointed out Zap's use in rocketry.

Giorgio wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:36 pm

The third electrode is the outer wall of the molten LiPb and that should keep the pinch stabilized.

I don't think that FuZE-Q will have the liquid outer wall yet, which to my understanding just replaces the outer electrode anyway.
But it will have the 3rd electrode.
As far as I understand, the 3rd electrode is somewhere around or near the inner electrode somehow and for some reason. They are really vague about this. Could be part of their "secret sauce". I will see whether I can get some more info on that.

Skipjack wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:50 am

Giorgio wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:36 pm

The third electrode is the outer wall of the molten LiPb and that should keep the pinch stabilized.

I don't think that FuZE-Q will have the liquid outer wall yet, which to my understanding just replaces the outer electrode anyway.
But it will have the 3rd electrode.
As far as I understand, the 3rd electrode is somewhere around or near the inner electrode somehow and for some reason. They are really vague about this. Could be part of their "secret sauce". I will see whether I can get some more info on that.

I see, if it is like that than it will be only an upgraded FuZE machine to do more test on the pinch stabilization.
A pity, I thought they had collected enough data with FuZE to move on to the liquid LiPb design.

Giorgio wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:42 am

I see, if it is like that than it will be only an upgraded FuZE machine to do more test on the pinch stabilization.
A pity, I thought they had collected enough data with FuZE to move on to the liquid LiPb design.

To my understanding, FuZE-Q is still a research machine with the goal to demonstrate Q(sci) > 1 within the next 16 months or so.
The demonstration plant with the LiPb design will be in 2026 or so. So not that long of a wait either.

Zap Energy has reached the point in their development that they have felt the need to upgrade their web pages to a more flashy and fancy version like we have seen some of their competitors do over the past years. A nice thing is that Zap Energy has direct links to their papers from their research page:

https://www.zapenergyinc.com/
https://www.zapenergyinc.com/research