Talk-Polywell.org

Good news for my Corvette, butnot so good news for fusion funding.

So conflicted.

Bah. Oil prices might be low at the moment, but they won't stay there. I could easily see oil rocketing up to 300$ a barrel next year.

Perception is everything. If it looks like the world economy is taking a header….then oil will likely follow- To heck with Supply & Demand in the short term. If turmoil reigns for a few more weeks....we'll see oil below $60/bbl

Chuck Connors wrote:If turmoil reigns for a few more weeks....we'll see oil below $60/bbl

And just a few years ago, we were "shocked, shocked I say!" to see oil bound up from the $20-$25 a barrel to over $40! Now we might be eagerly hoping for prices to go down to $60 a barrel... Hmmm...

Be Safe
Mumbles

Mumbles wrote:

Chuck Connors wrote:If turmoil reigns for a few more weeks....we'll see oil below $60/bbl

And just a few years ago, we were "shocked, shocked I say!" to see oil bound up from the $20-$25 a barrel to over $40! Now we might be eagerly hoping for prices to go down to $60 a barrel... Hmmm...

Be Safe
Mumbles

Quite right. Remember the big Newsweek issue, "The end of cheap oil." when it passed $50 in 2004-5?

Oil is going nowhere but up longterm until there's fundmental solutions. I'm an optimist; I think we will find those solutions. I can't speak as to timing, but I feel there'll be a few years of volatile pricing first.

Oil is going nowhere but up longterm until there's fundmental solutions.

There are all kinds of oil substitutes that become very attractive at ~ $50/bbl - ethanol, coal>methanol, propane, electric vehicles. There's also new sources that become viable at that price, like oil shale and oil sands. And nuclear is politically viable again.

What we saw this year was the temporary triumph of demand over supply due to the lag time in new production/adoption.

If everyone overproduces, we might see oil drop to $20-30/bbl again.

If everyone overproduces, we might see oil drop to $20-30/bbl again.

Wanna make a bet? I'll accept paypal.

There are all kinds of oil substitutes that become very attractive at ~ $50/bbl - ethanol, coal>methanol, propane, electric vehicles. There's also new sources that become viable at that price, like oil shale and oil sands. And nuclear is politically viable again.

True, but none of those will be an adequate replacement for oil any time soon.

Actually, Liquefaction of coal becomes profitable at ~$35bbl. They are working on four plants in the US. I believe that some of them are close to production now. China is doing it as is South Africa. They produces gasoline, no different than what is in the pumps now.

http://www.tristateobserver.com/modules ... &sid=10475

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction

I should add that the reason that we are not doing this is that the profit margins for oil companies is very small and the capital outlay for one of this things is gigantic(think billions and billions). Oil companies use as their long term cost of oil ~$20-25bbl. They can't justify the risk. My opinion has been to create a floor price of ~$50bbl for imported oil and then let the oil companies invest on their own.