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oznick's Latest KOS Diary

Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 7:54 am
by MSimon
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/17/8289/3005

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I liked this comment:
If you don't know what will work

Try lots (and lots) of little things.

See what happens. Compare notes, shake things up, review, revise, try again.

Inexorably 2 things happen: 1) there's a convergence to a solution, fast or slow and 2)"To a million eyeballs, all bugs are shallow" - sooner or later, some will see the problem in a new light and the solution falls out.

Where when and how can't be predicted, monetarized, scheduled or tied to an IPO.

Get the researchers back to the universities and out of the corporations.

Yes We DID!! Thank God. Canada's too friggin' cold.

by Dan E in Blue Hampshire on Wed Dec 17, 2008 at 06:35:06 AM PST

Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:29 pm
by scareduck
Get the researchers back to the universities and out of the corporations.
Right, because government is so terrific at developing cost-effective anything. Not. (See also, ITER.)

The Internet didn't become useful to the vast majority of its users until it got kicked out of the NSF.

Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 6:43 pm
by Professor Science
cost effectivity is for engineers, discovery is for scientists, and there's no money in discovery, the profit motive doesn't work when the benefits don't manifest in the form of a check.

Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:11 pm
by scareduck
Professor Science wrote:cost effectivity is for engineers, discovery is for scientists, and there's no money in discovery, the profit motive doesn't work when the benefits don't manifest in the form of a check.
The whole point of fusion is cheap, effective energy. If the costs of fusion are prohibitive, there's no point.

Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:23 pm
by MSimon
Professor Science wrote:cost effectivity is for engineers, discovery is for scientists, and there's no money in discovery, the profit motive doesn't work when the benefits don't manifest in the form of a check.
The scientists start companies these days. They get checks too. If they hit on something.

Posted: Thu Dec 25, 2008 3:02 am
by Professor Science
but no company was gonna give bussard the cash for pure research in fusion mechanics to get enough data for engineers to start tinkering. engineers need data and science before they can start making it work. this goes beyond polywell. pure research is not economically feasible. the cost barrier is too large in most cases and the chance of "success" is abysmal. unless your definition of success is something other than discover something that can make a profit. if it is even "well that doesn't work, lets check something else" then it's always successful. and that's what science is, looking.

That Kos poster was talking big picture. Research in general needs to get back to it's roots, discovering new loop holes in the universe for engineers to exploit to turn us all into laser handed gods.

Posted: Thu Dec 25, 2008 5:32 am
by MSimon
Prof,

The other thing to keep in mind that something like the transistor was built on 100s of research projects which had only marginal profit potential in improving microwave diodes which didn't have a big market in the 30s and early 40s. Of course the military wanted every advantage it could get so it paid for a lot of the work. And Bell Labs wanted better microwave stuff to lower the costs and improve the reliability of its network.

And then the transistor hit and suddenly semiconductor research was a paying proposition.

Fusion is just starting to attract VC. Another thing we are starting to see is that hobby fusors are starting to get more sophisticated in terms of operation and learning.

We may be near the knee of the curve on this deal.

Even if the work only leads to small neutron generators with .1% conversion efficiency - electricity to neutrons - it will have a lot of applications in neutron activation analysis and possibly even tumor destruction. Figure out how to load up tumors with B10 and you have a cancer killer. Another possibility is radioactive waste destruction.

Once you have commercial applications the research money will pour in.

Posted: Thu Dec 25, 2008 5:41 am
by Professor Science
Fusion isn't the only piece of science that would benefit from continued research though. and should there be anything better than fusion, like, i dunno, direct conversion from mass to energy or something, it'd take some pure science to get there. the university research system and non-profit motivated approach is crucial to furthering human ability.

Posted: Thu Dec 25, 2008 6:03 am
by wisnij
Professor Science wrote:Fusion isn't the only piece of science that would benefit from continued research though. and should there be anything better than fusion, like, i dunno, direct conversion from mass to energy or something, it'd take some pure science to get there.
Better to stay with fusion. Like John Walker says, never invest in something that violates a conservation law. :P