williatw wrote:From your link:
And if it turns out to be not as "not hard to do" as he believes?Is regime change possible? The CIA could do it. We've done it before. You pay people to create labor unrest, strikes. The Iranian regime is tottering. It could be brought down. The mullahs do not trust the army. They're afraid their conscript soldiers won't fire on crowds, so they rely on Revolutionary Guards, highly paid, and on organized street thugs called the Basiji. But, you get one general to revolt and kill the political officers, make a public statement that "we must not harm the people." The Iranian people are not violent, they are not prone to riot, but a funeral leads to a demonstration, to more funerals and the protest grows. Only 55% of Iran is Persian, the rest are minorities, Arabs, Azerbaijanis -- you create problems. A truck of Iranian soldiers is blown up in the Azerbaijani region. It's not hard to do.
Iran could have a regime friendly to us. The people have experienced the mullahs; they are friendly to America, and even Israel. Under the Shah, Iran was friendly with Israel.
I may not know what will absolutely work. I do know what will absolutely not work; Letting Iran get a nuclear bomb.
williatw wrote: You prepared to send in hundreds of thousands of American troops over massive international objections to make sure we get/keep the right kind of Shah of Iran 2.0? Keep them in there for the years/decades it might take? Deal with the blow-back of Iranian inspired terrorist attacks against us being ratcheted up? Reinstate the draft to get the affordable size of the force structure we might need to make that sustainable? Draft middle/upper middle class white kids and use them that way in what would quickly be a very unpopular occupation? Deal with the resulting political unrest it might cause here as the aforementioned massively protest against the draft? Deal with whatever China would do in the meantime as we are so preoccupied? How about we get out of the Middle East instead? Try for energy independence (Fracking, tar-sands, off-shore drilling, raising fuel efficiency standards, etc.), let Europe and Russia worry about the Middle East. If they are to "weak", "socialist", "pacifist" etc. to deal with the problem of a nuclear Iran on their doorsteps, than to hell with them. Develop enough counter-terrorisms measures and SDI to protect ourselves, maybe share it with them if they are willing to pay for it, protect our own shores first, and divest ourselves of these "entangling alliances" (including NATO) the founders would have hated.
I interpret everything you say above as "Wouldn't it have been so much simpler had Jimmy Carter not completely F*cked Up Iran?"
"Why Yes. Yes it would."
I am a firm believer in the Curtis Le May school of threat prevention. We should not have let this get to the point where the Curtis Le May school of threat prevention needed to be invoked. We should have been telling Iran not only "No", but "F*ck No!" for the last thirty years or so.
National sovereignty? "F*ck You!" Iranian scientific advancement? "F*ck You!"
You do not play such games with dangerous religious fanatics in control of a relatively powerful nation, especially one with a history of conquest.
At this point, we try all that social crap and see if it will work, but if it doesn't get some pretty fast results, we Nuke the crap out of their Nuclear facilities.
We are once more standing at the edge of a precipice while Hitler contemplates taking the Sudetenland, and if we stand here and let him, future generations will be asking "Why did you not intervene before the cost became so bloody? "
The Iranians are intent on returning the 12th Imam, and working diligently towards a self fulfilling prophecy. Does anyone think there won't be hell to pay if we let them build ICBMs?
Of all the most astonishing points of historical stupidity, we are living through this one.
williatw wrote: Get back to the idea: Americans are friends of liberty everywhere, but custodians only of their own. – John Quincy Adams
http://maureenholland.wordpress.com/quo ... -the-ages/
The supposed quietude of a good man allures the ruffian; while on the other hand, arms, like law, discourage and keep the invader and the plunderer in awe, and preserve order in the world as well as property. -Thomas Paine