r/K Selection Theory

[MSimon]

Every society collapses given enough time. dynamics of life change with every advancement. until a collapse and reformation happens. Show me one time in history when it did not?

I'd be satisfied with another 500 years.

We have no examples of a high tech society collapsing. We have a LOT of examples of societies run by paper going down.

I am not saying it can't happen but some times qualitative differences change circumstances. We shall see.

I can see a banking collapse. The steel mills, computers, and roadways will not disappear.

[choff]

If we do have a collapse, it will not be because of lack of technical capability, it will be from debt. Given the efficiencies the economy has achieved just to stay afloat in this sea of debt, imagine how well the economy would function of all that debt were to disappear tomorrow.

[MSimon]

If we do have a collapse, it will not be because of lack of technical capability, it will be from debt. Given the efficiencies the economy has achieved just to stay afloat in this sea of debt, imagine how well the economy would function of all that debt were to disappear tomorrow.

A banking collapse would be a temporary setback with all the advanatages you point out.

[williatw]

We have no examples of a high tech society collapsing. We have a LOT of examples of societies run by paper going down.

I am not saying it can't happen but some times qualitative differences change circumstances. We shall see.

I can see a banking collapse. The steel mills, computers, and roadways will not disappear.

I find your words comforting....but I wonder how many people in 1929 thought they lived in a "high tech society"? After all the western world of 1929 was the most industrialized technological & wealthiest society in history at the time, just like us. As for the present day barring nuclear war or something how about some kind of killer computer virus that causes computer systems to crash all over the world? Could we even pump gas at our local gas station if the computers stopped working? Or buy groceries if the system wouldn't accept or record a buy/sell? Or the suppliers of said grocery stores ability to properly order, bill, inventory and ship more food if the computer systems crashed for an extended period of time?

[MSimon]

We have no examples of a high tech society collapsing. We have a LOT of examples of societies run by paper going down.

I am not saying it can't happen but some times qualitative differences change circumstances. We shall see.

I can see a banking collapse. The steel mills, computers, and roadways will not disappear.

I find your words comforting....but I wonder how many people in 1929 thought they lived in a "high tech society"? After all the western world of 1929 was the most industrialized technological & wealthiest society in history at the time, just like us. As for the present day barring nuclear war or something how about some kind of killer computer virus that causes computer systems to crash all over the world? Could we even pump gas at our local gas station if the computers stopped working? Or buy groceries if the system wouldn't accept or record a buy/sell? Or the suppliers of said grocery stores ability to properly order, bill, inventory and ship more food if the computer systems crashed for an extended period of time?

Such a crash is likely to be temporary. Like a banking collapse. In fact it is a banking collapse.

[williatw]

We have no examples of a high tech society collapsing. We have a LOT of examples of societies run by paper going down.

I am not saying it can't happen but some times qualitative differences change circumstances. We shall see.

I can see a banking collapse. The steel mills, computers, and roadways will not disappear.

I find your words comforting....but I wonder how many people in 1929 thought they lived in a "high tech society"? After all the western world of 1929 was the most industrialized technological & wealthiest society in history at the time, just like us. As for the present day barring nuclear war or something how about some kind of killer computer virus that causes computer systems to crash all over the world? Could we even pump gas at our local gas station if the computers stopped working? Or buy groceries if the system wouldn't accept or record a buy/sell? Or the suppliers of said grocery stores ability to properly order, bill, inventory and ship more food if the computer systems crashed for an extended period of time?

Such a crash is likely to be temporary. Like a banking collapse. In fact it is a banking collapse.

Uhh..."temporary"; a bad enough virus or viruses it could be weeks...then the resulting food riots, lawlessness, anarchy when people can't buy more food. Panicky people who don't know what to do when their food stamps stop being taken. Seem to recall there were near food riots in Walmart and other places last year when that government shutdown happened; they weren't taking food stamps or something. That was only for days..imagine say 4-6 weeks or longer. It could easily under the right circumstances snowball into something ugly and much longer lasting. What happens when the computers at the power plants crash and won't come back up? Can they even still run things "manually" at allot of power plants? Life savings/401K balances disappeared (most of our money is stored in those banks) most of us don't have allot of cash on hand. Even if you had plenty of cash what store would buy/sell without anyway to track the sale; do they even know how much stuff is supposed to be sold at without the computer to tell them?

[Diogenes]

Such a crash is likely to be temporary. Like a banking collapse. In fact it is a banking collapse.

You should read this short story by Isaac Asimov.





I'm sure everything will be just fine.

[choff]

The main work of the last G20 conference was bank bail-ins. With the banksters paying off the politicians we have the problem that when the collapse does come all will be sacrificed to save the private central banks. That means everything, world peace, the life savings of the 99%, the rest of the global economy, everything. In Spain people were given bonds in lieu of their savings accounts, on the first day of trading they shrank to 1% of original listed value. That's not to say that a handful of our great leaders might actually wake up to common sense and finally place the public interest over the private central bankers, but that would be running against history. In any real market based economy, after the 2008 crash, the big Wall St. banks would have gone down and main street would have replaced them in short order.

Freemarket Capitalism is an oxymoron, it's just another word for Corporatism, Fascism, Communism, Socialism. Same $h1t, different @$$H0l3s.

[hanelyp]

Ah contrare, "Free market" if used honestly is antithetical to Corporatism, Fascism, Communism, Socialism. The latter are all exercises in aggressive force, an element an honest free market regards as alien.

"Capitalism" is a marxist term applied to a parody of the market, what the market turns into when aggressive force is allowed to run rampant.

[choff]

Once the private central bankers have taken over Seigniorage for a target country, the eventual outcome is private monopoly control of the economy, not free markets. That's why I differentiate between free enterprise and capitalism. The only distinction between private monopoly capitalism and state monopoly capitalism is in the name.

[MSimon]

Ah contrare, "Free market" if used honestly is antithetical to Corporatism, Fascism, Communism, Socialism. The latter are all exercises in aggressive force, an element an honest free market regards as alien.

"Capitalism" is a marxist term applied to a parody of the market, what the market turns into when aggressive force is allowed to run rampant.

Funny enough Reagan intentionally gutted the 4th Amendment to get at you know who - the smugglers. And now we have a large gang of militarized enforcers. And the militarization was a Nixon/Reagan plan as well.

And who do we have to thank politically for this state of affairs? Conservatives. But they got liberals to join in as well.

Can it be reversed politically? Depends if the spirit of liberty is strong enough. It only motivates about 14% of the electorate. Which is about 1/2 of the swing voters.

The tools are in place for an even more aggressive state. We already know that in some places fines are budgeted. So a certain level of criminality is desired.

Power and control.

[djolds1]

I personally think our current r type environment is fake. Artificial. It is borrowed prosperity which cannot continue. (120 trillion debt or so. When this baby crashes, it's going to be a beaut.)

I also think I have repeatedly summed up this guy's premise with my observation that prosperity is the primary cause of liberalism. Good times make bad people. Bad times make good people.

Full agreement. A very close echo of my own analysis.

As to the demographics - we're in a mouse utopia on the downcycle.

I don't see the good times going away. And I don't see the K's putting much thought into how to make good people in good times. Most of the thinking runs along your lines --> "come the collapse..."

Collapse pretty much IS the solution. Read (or watch) Joseph Tainter's take on the subject. Everything bloats to collapse.

Except humans seem to do the opposite. Above about $4K per capita income humans reproduce at less than replacement rate. It is happening all around the world. The only exception I know of is the Jews in Israel.

Again, we are in a mouse utopia, a behavioral sink, on its downcycle in the sine wave of cultural variation. Somewhat fun and hedonistically satisfying for the beautiful ones who live within it while it lasts. But ultimately dysgenic and self-destructive. The collapse will come for the human beautiful ones, just as for the rodents. The question is when, not if. Every civilization in history has so collapsed as it matures into urbanized decadence. And this time has NEVER been different.

[And your point above about debt which I didn't address is not a carrying capacity or development problem. It is a banking problem. The debts will get written off if that is required. We USED to do it regularly.

Material wealth will still exist. Productive capacity will still exist. That is the real wealth.

Debt was more Dio's point. My point was intended to be more a corollary to r/K selection. r selection happens only in times and circumstances of plenty; i.e. "good times make bad people" as Dio said. There is an uncomfortable lesson in that insight, about the ultimately dyscivic and dysgenic consequences of prosperity. Whether that prosperity be "natural," or of the "artificial" variety Dio identified.

[djolds1]

We have no examples of a high tech society collapsing. We have a LOT of examples of societies run by paper going down.

I am not saying it can't happen but some times qualitative differences change circumstances. We shall see.

I can see a banking collapse. The steel mills, computers, and roadways will not disappear.

I find your words comforting....but I wonder how many people in 1929 thought they lived in a "high tech society"? After all the western world of 1929 was the most industrialized technological & wealthiest society in history at the time, just like us. As for the present day barring nuclear war or something how about some kind of killer computer virus that causes computer systems to crash all over the world? Could we even pump gas at our local gas station if the computers stopped working? Or buy groceries if the system wouldn't accept or record a buy/sell? Or the suppliers of said grocery stores ability to properly order, bill, inventory and ship more food if the computer systems crashed for an extended period of time?

The vulnerability is not the computers, nor the eminently digitally editable numbers we call bank accounts. The vulnerability is the electricity. Dies the fire, and everything dies. Freezers shut down and meat goes bad, pumps do not function to pump fuel into car gas tanks, batteries in the ipads do not recharge after the current charge runs down, pharmaceutical synthesis plants do not function and the only stocks of meds remaining are what is on the shelves. Mount a stuxnet attack on the power plants, burn out the turbines and the high end step-down transformers, and we are back in the iron age for decades.

Ah contrare, "Free market" if used honestly is antithetical to Corporatism, Fascism, Communism, Socialism. The latter are all exercises in aggressive force, an element an honest free market regards as alien.

"Capitalism" is a marxist term applied to a parody of the market, what the market turns into when aggressive force is allowed to run rampant.

A free market exists only when defended by a government. Without that defense, there is only anarchy.

Eventually, capitalists will opt to secure guaranteed profits from government clientage, as opposed to the possibility of higher profits, but also far higher risk, from competition. At that point the Iron Law of Oligarchy wins and capitalism dies once again.

Once the private central bankers have taken over Seigniorage for a target country, the eventual outcome is private monopoly control of the economy, not free markets. That's why I differentiate between free enterprise and capitalism. The only distinction between private monopoly capitalism and state monopoly capitalism is in the name.

There is no distinction whatsoever. A "private monopoly" will become a de facto arm of the state or even a de facto state itself. See the Honorable East India Company, see also the finance banks of Wall Street - branches of the Fed in all but name. The revolving door of personnel back and forth between high level "private" and "public" service jobs tells the tale; they are one cadre, and the three letter acronym or corporate nameplate printed on the office door today is of no consequence to ties to their fellows, wherever the offices of those fellows may be this year.

[MSimon]

Without that defense, there is only anarchy.

People self organize in the wake of great storms (at least they do on the East Coast).

I don't see electricity going away. Maybe islanded for a while. But totally going away? Not very likely.

I think you can make good people in good times. But as evidenced here - even people aware of the question do not address it.

[Diogenes]

The vulnerability is not the computers, nor the eminently digitally editable numbers we call bank accounts. The vulnerability is the electricity. Dies the fire, and everything dies. Freezers shut down and meat goes bad, pumps do not function to pump fuel into car gas tanks, batteries in the ipads do not recharge after the current charge runs down, pharmaceutical synthesis plants do not function and the only stocks of meds remaining are what is on the shelves. Mount a stuxnet attack on the power plants, burn out the turbines and the high end step-down transformers, and we are back in the iron age for decades.

And it is my opinion that when we lose the light, shallow pampered people will revert to barbarism and destruction in their rage stroke of despair. I think the analogy I made with "Nightfall" is pretty good.





If they collapse the economy, many people who are now only fed by government will likely die. Of those who don't, it will most likely be the most vicious who will survive. There will also likely be an attempt by government to confiscate the stores of hoarders and collectivize the farms in the manner of the Soviets, but I do not think a populace we have built on plenty will likely be feed-able by coerced and bureaucrat ran farming collectives.