ladajo wrote:Also, don't forget that Israel will not tolerate any real capability by Iran, so this fight would be a sooner rather than later, and also would thus inherently limit Iranian ability to escalate horizontally by trying to drag in third parties with kinetic actions. This would only hasten the end of Iran anyway.
Iran already has substantial capability. They can put satellites into orbit, so presumably they can make an ICBM. They will continue to develop their own homegrown nuke technology, and they could potentially buy material from other sources.
At what point is Israel going to assert it's lack of tolerance? Do they trust their spies sufficiently to know when the Iranians are building a weapon, or are they going to take a chance on getting a nasty surprise?
I've read about the variant of Islam favored in some Iranian circles regarding the return of the Mahdi, and how some see it as their duty to bring him out of occlusion. They believe that once the final war is started, the forces of Allah will insure their victory. (Which was the same battle strategy they attempted to use in the Iran/Iraq war)
In other words, they may think a single weapon will be sufficient, because Allah will save them in the response. I don't even think they would be dismayed about losing cities, because they would see it as their version of "the rapture" where Allah calls the souls to him.
My point is, they aren't rational players, and it should be our strong and public position as well as that of the Israelis, that they won't be allowed to get anywhere near a Nuke ICBM. I'm thinking the clock should be already ticking on an Israeli response, if it is their intention to stop it.