If we had just kept the F-22 production line funded...

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DeltaV
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Post by DeltaV »

Skipjack wrote:Chinas interest has traditionaly always been directed inwards. The only country they could be interested in attacking is Taiwan, since they consider it part of their own country.
Traditionally, China has not had a booming, resource-hungry industrial base, and a population of 1,300,000,000+ which, while not yet allowed full access to information from the outside world (e.g. Google), now knows enough about Capitalism to want a better lifestyle. Can you imagine the average Chinese citizen finally owning a car, and then not having enough gasoline to drive it? That happened to a lesser extent here in the US in 1973 during the Arab Oil Embargo. It was not pretty. China's unelected rulers may end up having to invade resource-rich countries just to stay in power, now that they've let Capitalism out of the bag.
THERE is no exaggerating China's hunger for commodities. The country accounts for about a fifth of the world's population, yet it gobbles up more than half of the world's pork, half of its cement, a third of its steel and over a quarter of its aluminium. It is spending 35 times as much on imports of soya beans and crude oil as it did in 1999, and 23 times as much importing copper—indeed, China has swallowed over four-fifths of the increase in the world's copper supply since 2000.

What is more, China is getting ever hungrier. Although consumption of petrol is falling in America, the oil price is setting new records, because demand from China and other developing economies is still on the rise. The International Energy Agency expects China's imports of oil to triple by 2030.

"The new colonialists"
Mar 13th 2008 | From The Economist print edition

mdeminico
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Post by mdeminico »

Skipjack wrote:Look, I am all for private industry where it makes sense. Certain things dont make sense though. Education should be there for everyone, not just for the privileged.
Education always will be there for everyone. When you return 90% of someone's money back to them that you previously were taking from them, suddenly they have a lot of money to spend on things they see around them that could use some dough.

Aka, private charity would rise and fill the voids, and if you didn't like how one was performing, you could cut off its funding. Can't do that with government.
Infrastructural measures should also be done by the government. Private companies will have problems with e.g. securing the rights to build roads through communities. And then, you wont have much competition there. If you let the private companies build the roads on their own dime, they will want to charge the ones using them. So you have a road tax imposed on you by private company. Since you can only build so many highways in one place, this road will be without competition from anyone else. So this company will effectively have the monopoly to charge as much as they want. Seems like the perfect business to me. It is the return of the robber baron. I dont know about you, but I dont see this reducing any costs for the private citizen.
You're right, there's some instances where it's possible, and some where it's not. Problem is, right now we've got cities and counties spending money on roads that really don't need to be incredibly nice (like almost all residential roads). If you lived in a small subdivision with 50 houses, would you willingly spend $250,000 to completely tear up and re-pave that street? I don't know about you, but I can find a lot better way to spend $5,000 of my own money, and that of my other 49 neighbors. Heck, I can think of a lot better ways to spend $500 per year for 10 years of that money...

Same thing about sewers. If they are owned by private companies, they can charge as much for the sewers as they want. You cant have more than one sewer channel in the same spot, so you are stuck with the sewage company there. Since the free market is defined by competition and there is effectively no competition, you will get insane prices. Of course people can just return to dumping their shit into the streets. Say "hi" to the return of all the nice illnesses that come from that to me please! Oh and the stench!
A wonderful future you have invisioned there!
Who's talking about sewers and other "one-line-only" items?
Police and justice system also have to be government held. Otherwise you will end up with private militias fighting over territories... We have had that problem in the 1920ies when the militias of the socialists and the christian socialists were fighting over control of the country. This eventually led to the establishment of the Christian Social Austro Fascists.
Same thing I just said above. Courts to settle disputes, sheriffs to enforce the law, etc. That's an inherently public matter.
There are other things. Basic science research is rarely done by private companies since it often does not have any direct application (that usually comes much later when someone uses the results to make some invention). This basic research like the LHC, or Fermi, or some paleontological dig that gives us a better understanding of the world, is often costy and requires well trained people. Private companies dont like this sort of stuff. So again, this is the kind of stuff governments have to do.
And we've seen the GREAT advances in science spawned by these "basic science" undertakings... the LHC, the Super-Kamiokande, etc...

What these things have told us is *nothing* about anything of any consequence. Their conclusions and theories are mostly based on dubious theories about particles and what composes matter, etc. None of which has *any* real world application in the foreseeable future.

The reason private industry doesn't invest in these things is, like you said, they have no direct application. They *won't* have a direct application for many years because to simply take advantage of any findings (presuming there are any useful findings at all) requires orders of magnitude leaps in current technologies. AND, nobody purposely builds those orders of magnitude leaps in technology simply to get to a usable application for this "great finding", presuming there are any.

The point is, the results obtained by our billions of tax dollars blown on these things are *utterly useless* because in order to take advantage of them, we need technologies that are decades away, and nobody is going to invest in those technologies on purpose. Those technologies are simply going to be pursued through normal market conditions over time, and when those technologies are developed, surprise surprise, that multi-billion dollar "basic research" effort that my tax dollars were blown on decades ago, could now be performed with a few million dollars with other new technologies.

In other words, looking decades into what *may* be possible in the future is almost always a horrible waste of money, since those same findings could be made decades later for much less money and immediately capitalized on with that future tech.

Skipjack
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Post by Skipjack »

You have demonstrated your lack of knowledge in the choice and use of stat snippets you use to argue.
Ah really? How so? You wanted to launch an attack on China from a base in Australia, dude. This is not a good strategy. I told you why. You have failed to disarm my argumentation with facts. Instead you just throw arround nonsensical snippets and attack me personally.
Maybe I will meet you sometime during a theater planning conference or exercise sometime. Then you can establish your actual capabilities in these matters in person. I believe there is a major one coming up here in the next month or so. It will be a Joint-Combined event, so you can display your full range of expertise. If you want I can throw your hat in as a candidate as JFACC ATO Coordinator.
Unlikely
Traditionally, China has not had a booming, resource-hungry industrial base, and a population of 1,300,000,000+ which, while not yet allowed full access to information from the outside world (e.g. Google), now knows enough about Capitalism to want a better lifestyle. Can you imagine the average Chinese citizen finally owning a car, and then not having enough gasoline to drive it? That happened to a lesser extent here in the US in 1973 during the Arab Oil Embargo. It was not pretty. China's unelected rulers may end up having to invade resource-rich countries just to stay in power, now that they've let Capitalism out of the bag.
You do have some fair points there. However, I do think that a few of the issues you have raised here will not be an issue after all.
First, the Chinese do already know a lot more about the rest of world than you might think. China is trying to censor the internet, but that is a ridiculously futile task. So the younger generation there does know and understand the situation in the rest of the world and the consequences of certain actions, etc. They have their own interests and those are not to fight wars (the kids there enjoy playing Warcraft, rather than doing real wars). Sure one may argue that the leading elite will not think that way, but I am convinced that given enough time, even they will be increasingly infiltrated by people with "modern" thinking.
Second, China is investing heavily into nuclear power. Most of the worlds new nuclear reactors are being build in China. So they are trying to move away from fossile fuels. I think that they will try to use more electric cars in the mid term future. So hopefully this will mitigate this problem a bit and make it less severe.
China's unelected rulers may end up having to invade resource-rich countries just to stay in power, now that they've let Capitalism out of the bag
And what countries would that be? There is not much going on in the vicinity that is worth invading. A war like that may cost China more than it would gain from it. Never forget that China is struggling hard to get investors into their country. Any wrong move could scare those away. Then they may have the resources, but no resource hungry industrial base left to feed with those resources.
There are plenty of other countries that would be happy to get a piece of Chinas cake.
Also, AFAIK, China is horting USDollars. I have a theory that at some strategic point they will flood the market with those US$. The consequences could gain them much more than a war.

Skipjack
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Post by Skipjack »

Aka, private charity would rise and fill the voids, and if you didn't like how one was performing, you could cut off its funding.
Problem is that private charity is benefiting from the tax incentives associated with it. If you lower the taxes as you suggest, there is no incentive left. So there will be a lot less charity. People are by nature greedy.
You're right, there's some instances where it's possible, and some where it's not. Problem is, right now we've got cities and counties spending money on roads that really don't need to be incredibly nice (like almost all residential roads).
Ok, so you would like to reduce the quality of your infrastructure? In Austria we have paved roads up into the highest mountains. We have very difficult terrain, yet our roads are generally in a better condition than the roads in the US (ok, to be fair, one has to admit that we have a smaller country so less distances need to be covered).
I am glad that this is so. Since car traffic is among the most deadly and dangerous things, having good roads does save and protect lives.
In fact, with 40,000 dead in the US allone in car traffic, one needs to wonder whether putting so much money into the military is really setting the priorities right.
There is also a legal aspect to this matter: If you are the one responsible for your community road and the fact that your negligence to keep it nicely maintained caused a fatal traffic accident, you could loose a lot more money than what is required to pave that road.
Who's talking about sewers and other "one-line-only" items?
You just mentioned roads yourself. They are a "one line only" item.
And we've seen the GREAT advances in science spawned by these "basic science" undertakings... the LHC
The LHC has only been operational for a short while.
The point is, the results obtained by our billions of tax dollars blown on these things are *utterly useless* because in order to take advantage of them, we need technologies that are decades away, and nobody is going to invest in those technologies on purpose.
Please do some research and then rethink your statement.
Please, I do not even want to bother doing this for you. It is such an unqualified statement that shows your true lack of perspective. If you think that a few decades are a long time, you are mistaken.
In my opinion our leaders have to think in millenia if we want to not only survive as a species, but expand the solar empire out into the cosmos.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Skip,
My point was not in attacking you personnally and apologize if you took it that way. My purpose was in saying that you do not seem to have any real experience in the reality of the issues you are discussing regarding air planning. It appears from your choices that you have what appears to be a google based knowledge foundation vice actual experience. In short, appearance is you do not, nor have you done it for a living.
I never said anything about attacking from Australia. Although it could be part of the plan. I did say that the US has the ability to make airfields in days (or less) where we need them. I agree that geography is a consideration in the air plan for Taiwan, however not as much as you are indicating. You do not actually understand long range suppression, strike and superiority plannning. In fact, one of the points you miss is that effects can be acheived based on the creation of transient access windows. We do not need to 'clear and hold' to do what we need. We only need to get in an out where and when we want, which is entirely within capability and much easier. Although, if constant air superiority is desired, it can also be acheived and maintained.
For another historical example, during the Christmas Linebacker raids in Vietnam, the North Vietnamese exhausted the entire Hanoi supply of 1000+ SA-2's against US B-52's in less than 4 days. They acheived a hit rate of less than 0.5%. And all hits did not translate to downed aircraft. Fighters also engaged the bombers and achieved exactly zero kills with two shot down by the bombers.
That was 40 years ago. The US capability gap has only gotten better since then.
As far as China attacking Taiwan, they have set clear trip wires that will require a military intervention. These tripwires are public, and meant.
The Taiwanese press the issue occasionally, but understand (so far, more or less) that time is on their side. The fundamental point is that the Taiwanese are split on unification or going it alone. However they are essentially unanimous in unification meaning that they are the ones in control, not the politburo. I discuss this with my Taiwanese counterpart at work every several days. Today's discussion revolved around the selling out of Taiwan by Kissinger and Nixon over getting political and logistical isolation of North Vietnam from China and Russia. ROC sure was pissed to get booted from the UN Security Council permanent seat.

DeltaV
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Post by DeltaV »

Every Day, It's a-Getting Closer
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-J-XX-Prototype.html
Any notion that an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will be capable of competing against this Chengdu design in air combat, let alone penetrate airspace defended by this fighter, would be simply absurd. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet are both aerodynamically and kinematically quite inferior to the as presented J-XX/J-20 design, and even the shape based VLO capability in the J-XX/J-20, as presented, will effectively neutralise any sensor advantage either type might possess against earlier Russian and Chinese fighter designs.
...
If the J-XX/J-20 is intended to directly replace PLA Flankers, numbers in the order of 400 – 500 aircraft are credible.
(Edit - fixed dead link.)
Last edited by DeltaV on Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mdeminico
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Post by mdeminico »

Skipjack wrote:Problem is that private charity is benefiting from the tax incentives associated with it. If you lower the taxes as you suggest, there is no incentive left. So there will be a lot less charity. People are by nature greedy.
You think people give to charity because they get a tax deduction? Honestly? You think that's their primary motive?
Ok, so you would like to reduce the quality of your infrastructure? In Austria we have paved roads up into the highest mountains. We have very difficult terrain, yet our roads are generally in a better condition than the roads in the US (ok, to be fair, one has to admit that we have a smaller country so less distances need to be covered).
I am glad that this is so. Since car traffic is among the most deadly and dangerous things, having good roads does save and protect lives.
In fact, with 40,000 dead in the US allone in car traffic, one needs to wonder whether putting so much money into the military is really setting the priorities right.
There is also a legal aspect to this matter: If you are the one responsible for your community road and the fact that your negligence to keep it nicely maintained caused a fatal traffic accident, you could loose a lot more money than what is required to pave that road.
Going 25 mph (40 kph) on a residential street is hardly going to cause fatal accidents. Those roads can (and in some cases should) simply be gravel roads and fill their duty. They can have large cracks and potholes, and it wouldn't really matter.
Who's talking about sewers and other "one-line-only" items?
You just mentioned roads yourself. They are a "one line only" item.
Roads are not a one-line-only item. To specific places they are, but not in general. Roads made specifically for transport from area to area could easily be made private. Most surface streets, same thing. I'm not saying it would be easy, but it's do-able. There would have to be government involvement in aspects of it regardless.
And we've seen the GREAT advances in science spawned by these "basic science" undertakings... the LHC
The LHC has only been operational for a short while.
The point is, the results obtained by our billions of tax dollars blown on these things are *utterly useless* because in order to take advantage of them, we need technologies that are decades away, and nobody is going to invest in those technologies on purpose.
Please do some research and then rethink your statement.
Please, I do not even want to bother doing this for you. It is such an unqualified statement that shows your true lack of perspective. If you think that a few decades are a long time, you are mistaken.
In my opinion our leaders have to think in millenia if we want to not only survive as a species, but expand the solar empire out into the cosmos.
*chuckle*

Such a statement can only come from someone trying to justify something unjustifiable. Would you invest your own personal money into this? Probably. Then do so on your own dime, not on mine. I can't come to you and say "oh but there's this great advancement in the field of _______, I'm taking your money to pay for it". Likewise, neither should government be allowed to.
Last edited by mdeminico on Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.

GW Johnson
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Post by GW Johnson »

I would venture a prediction about China. They will probably overexpand and overextend themselves into an economic implosion in a very few years, one that lasts about a decade or so, just like the Japanese did about 25 years ago. Once they come out of it, they will take a less arrogant approach to their role in world commerce, same as Japan, and be far easier to deal with.

On F-22 vs F-35 -- I think we may have made the same mistake with F-35 that we made 40-some years ago with F-111: trying to build something that is everything to everyone. F-35 will have a role, just not the one planned for it. Same thing happened to F-111. The F-22's that we do have will serve for a long time yet, and be as good a match for Chinese and Russian top fighter planes as anything we have ever had.

You have to compare a top fighter to a top fighter (that's F-22). F-35 is not a top combat fighter (I don't care how it's billed), it's a niche airplane like Harrier, and like F-111. Eventually, that niche will be identified. Once filled, we'll wonder how we ever coped before there was an F-35. But it will not be a top fighter. Same thing happened with Harrier, and with F-111.
GW Johnson
McGregor, Texas

krenshala
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Post by krenshala »

happyjack27 wrote:
krenshala wrote:The money problem in the US isn't how much is being spent on the military. That is only about 5 to 10 percent of what is taken in by taxes from what I've seen. The budget problems are in how the other 90 - 95% are being used, in my opinion.
the u.s. federal budget is publically available online. i encourage you to take a look at it. let me assure you, the proportion of your federal taxes that go to the military is MUCH closer to 50% than 5%. look it up.
I looked up 2009. That appears to disagree with you -- 23% of the budget went to the military (Defense), which is slightly closer to my 5 to 10% guestimate. The 2010 spending by category chart lists 18.74% used by Defense (though it also appears to be a higher dollar value than 2009; i guess more taxes were collected).

krenshala
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Post by krenshala »

GW Johnson wrote:On F-22 vs F-35 ... [y]ou have to compare a top fighter to a top fighter (that's F-22). F-35 is not a top combat fighter (I don't care how it's billed), it's a niche airplane ...
I think this is where the problem stems from. Someone without knowledge about how combat aircraft work (mission wise) thought, "why have two fighter planes" and talked the right people into cancelling one. If you don't understand one plane can't do it all, then it would appear logical to kill the program that only did one "job".

While I think the F-35 is an interesting plane, and does things no other plane can do (at least, not in the same way), it isn't the be-all-end-all of fighter aircraft. For air-superiority (or whatever they want to call it this year), you need an aircraft designed to dominate other fighter aircraft. That is what the F-22 was meant to do, and it does it well. The F-15 has aged as well as it has because it did the same thing -- designed for the role of air superiority. F-16s do their own job well -- they can catch just about anything (interceptor), but they aren't the best aircraft for achieving air superiority.

rjaypeters
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Post by rjaypeters »

krenshala wrote:I think this is where the problem stems from. Someone without knowledge about how combat aircraft work (mission wise) thought, "why have two fighter planes" and talked the right people into cancelling one...
It is worse than that! The F-35 variants are supposed to replace three airplanes. Why? Strap down for the irony: because there would not be enough money to replace F-16s, F/A-18(A/B/E/F) and AV-8Bs.

The lovely people involved in this early decision included our Solons in government and the potential contractors who should have known better precisely because of the F-111 history. Why did the contractors, who really should have known better go along with this bad idea? Well, there isn't much money in telling the customer something cannot be done. And hey, they thought they might be able to pull it off, or if not, well, they will have done their best for everyone concerned.

If we (the people of the United States) are lucky, the US government will descope the F-35 project down to one flavor (the F-35C for carrier) and shove it down the throats of the USAF and USMC. Why build only the carrier bird? It can fly off the carriers which give reasonable flexibility. I leave it to those wiser than me to figure out whether to build more F/A-18E/Fs in the future. Why punish the USMC by having no STOVL capability? We can't afford it and the F-35B is the smallest production run (besides causing most of the technical difficulties).
"Aqaba! By Land!" T. E. Lawrence

R. Peters

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

DeltaV wrote:Every Day, It's a-Getting Closer
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-J-XX-Prototype.html
Any notion that an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will be capable of competing against this Chengdu design in air combat, let alone penetrate airspace defended by this fighter, would be simply absurd. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet are both aerodynamically and kinematically quite inferior to the as presented J-XX/J-20 design, and even the shape based VLO capability in the J-XX/J-20, as presented, will effectively neutralise any sensor advantage either type might possess against earlier Russian and Chinese fighter designs.
...
If the J-XX/J-20 is intended to directly replace PLA Flankers, numbers in the order of 400 – 500 aircraft are credible.
Key words above are "as presented J-XX/J-20 design". Did you notice in the photos that it is not a thrust vectoring platform? How about the multitude of control surfaces, like the "horizontal stabilizers" tucked in under the rear of the main wings? Makes a nice radar pocket there. How about that nice solid canopy structure? Hmmm.
I think there is a lot of hype vice reality in this design. Certainly looks like a cool Hollywood prop though. Reminds me of "Firefox".
I wonder what kind of legs it really has? Do you think that it would support strikes in Japan, Phillipines or Thailand? I wonder how it would tank? Doesn't seem to have a receiver marked out.
Stealth is about penetration, it is an offensive capability. Granted it helps in a defensive aspect (normally from the front and sides only), but that, given the cost, is more a bonus compared to the improved ability to penetrate and control initiative in the battlespace.

rjaypeters
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Post by rjaypeters »

The J-20 we see is a prototype, if it's not a piece of disinformation.

All of the design features you describe can be changed as the design matures, the F-22 was not designed or built in a day.

Also, does the F-22 really need thrust vectoring since staying out of close-in combat will keep it alive longer? Nice to have, sure, but a requirement? Perhaps the Chinese have taken a look at the F-22 feature list and made choices.
"Aqaba! By Land!" T. E. Lawrence

R. Peters

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

True, Thrust Vectoring counts not in BVR. However it counts a lot when doing low level penetration.

I do not think it is a disinformation project. But I do think if you look closely it still indicates significant gaps. To be fair, thrust vectoring (and what goes with it, both implementation wise and capabilities it provides) is a generation gap technology. On that argument alone, you can say that this prototype is not F-22 gen, but more of an improved F-15 gen. It would be REALLY interesting to get a look under the hood and see what materials are used to build it. Granted plywood is stealthy, as the Germans new in WWII. :) The last is only made as a joke, not part of the actual discussion.

rjaypeters
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Post by rjaypeters »

The J-20 appears to have a delta wing (I saw some pictures of its wheelie during a high-speed taxi test) and if so it most reminds me of an FB-22 (sometimes called the Strike Raptor).

Plywood? Light, cheap, what's not to like? Then we'd probably call it the Mosquito Raptor.
"Aqaba! By Land!" T. E. Lawrence

R. Peters

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