Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

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Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Yea
7
78%
Nay
2
22%
 
Total votes: 9

Teahive
Posts: 362
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:09 pm

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by Teahive »

ladajo wrote:For one thing, companies do not grow at the same rate.
Some grow faster, most grow slower. But there are other factors such as senior employees retiring, lower starting pay, start-ups being able to pay more as their revenue base becomes more stable, etc.
And where rises are not sustainable, companies will ultimately fail.
ladajo wrote:Another thing to consider is the choice between reinvestment in company infrastructure and development, or widening the earnings gap. Why not give flat raises, pay more attention to contribution bonus programs based on profit/efficiency, and take the rest of the net take and grow the business (as well as return on investment to investors)?
Don't get me wrong, I'm in no way arguing that a fixed percentage increase is the right salary policy for all (or even many) companies. It's just one policy out of many, and I think it's way overused. Flat raises aren't always the right choice either. There's no one-size-fits-all solution for making employees feel happy, rewarded, motivated and loyal.

The same is true for investors, and employees and owners are effectively competing for the proceeds of the business. If employees feel undervalued, paying out dividends or even reinvesting in growth (which is also about raising the company value, not necessarily improving the outcome for individual employees) might not be such a good idea.

I don't see this as an argument against compounding, though.


paperburn1 wrote:
Maui wrote:Huh? Isn't that like saying mathematics is one of the greatest crimes ever foisted upon the populace? Compound interest isn't a policy, it's an equation. Or what am I missing?
The other way loans were made was, I give you 1000 dollars and you give me back 1100 dollars . you must do it in so many days/week years.
This meant your "credit rating" was based on how fast you paid off your loans . but if you were slow to pay them back and it took you longer you did not keep piling on interest payments without paying down the principle amount. You just were not able to borrow again because you still owed money. A self regulating system.
So you borrow $1,000, promising to pay back $1,100 after one year. You use it to create something of value but as the due date nears you lack liquidity, having only $50 in cash. You don't want to renege on your promise. Because it looks likely that you'll have the cash later, someone else is willing to help you out by lending you $1,050, with $1,155 due after another year. Voilà, there's compound interest.

The fact that credit ratings are a poor representation of reality, or that some people are effectively defaulting by paying down less than the interest and having nothing of value, isn't a direct consequence of compound interest. It just typically isn't in the interest of lenders to write off a loan.

ladajo
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by ladajo »

The is a fundamental difference between imposing contractual penalties on loadn repayment, verses implementing a loan with compund interest. The intent is different.
You can meet incentives for repayment with penalties.

Implementing compound interest on a loan is a legal maneuver to get paid for providing the loan up front, and protecting your interest in the pricinple over the long haul. It is also a handy way to disguise increased consumer cost for the loan. If the consumer eventually defaults in payments, you still get to claim remaining interest and the principle in total. But you got most of the cost of the loan up front with amortization, and bonus, you get to claim most, if not all of the collateral.

In any event, I was not trying to focus on loans in particular. I was trying to bring more light on the hidden costs over time that are easily missed in the first glance for any function of applied percentage recurring over time (compounding).

Percentage should be a measurement, not a mechanism.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

ladajo
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by ladajo »

GIThruster wrote:
ladajo wrote:His point is that if you want to make cuts, then say, "make the cuts, decide how". Not, "make these cuts here. You have no choice how".
I wasn't aware this is what sequestration requires. Are you sure we have a congressional mandate about how to do the cuts? I find that odd in the extreme.

He was asked for details about what would happen if there's a sequestration, and he answered with lots of details. Are you saying that the super-comittee decided on all these details? That would be shocking to me. I had presumed (albeit casually) that the details of the cuts were left to the Navy and the Secretary was painting this picture of gloom and doom in order to press his case and protect his funding.

Are you saying, that the super-comittee actually specified what groups would sail, get maintenance, be battle ready, etc.? I find that hard to believe. I think rather the secretary is passing the buck and claiming his hands are tied when they're not.
The commitee and legislation has tied the navy's hands. The is no authority to transfer funds between accounts. The navy's is across the board. The problem is that OM&N in particular had no margins. Thus with no ability to pick where to take money hits or not, and no ability to move funds to make up for critical shortfalls, the navy is taking it in the shorts.
It is too the point where in regards to furloughs, it said the greater probability is that an edict from above will say how it will be done, vice letting each entitity figure it out, or allowing entities to balance navy wide needs. So a critical function staff will take equal hits to a non-critical one. 20% reduction in hours. And it may be that all are simply told, "Friday's are off days, with no debate or deviation allowed." Some would rather preserve the hours, and make due with less paper or other expendibles. Some would prefer to do 5 short days, vice four full.
As advertised, there will be no choice in execution.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

paperburn1
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Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 5:53 am
Location: Third rock from the sun.

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by paperburn1 »

ladajo wrote:
The commitee and legislation has tied the navy's hands. The is no authority to transfer funds between accounts. The navy's is across the board. The problem is that OM&N in particular had no margins. Thus with no ability to pick where to take money hits or not, and no ability to move funds to make up for critical shortfalls, the navy is taking it in the shorts.
It is too the point where in regards to furloughs, it said the greater probability is that an edict from above will say how it will be done, vice letting each entitity figure it out, or allowing entities to balance navy wide needs. So a critical function staff will take equal hits to a non-critical one. 20% reduction in hours. And it may be that all are simply told, "Friday's are off days, with no debate or deviation allowed." Some would rather preserve the hours, and make due with less paper or other expendibles. Some would prefer to do 5 short days, vice four full.
As advertised, there will be no choice in execution.
Just got the word from our end of the pipe.The administration is expecting to maintain the level of service by working one day free per pay period and not close our doors. The military side of the house is in an uproar about this and has already put out the edict if they want to close essential services by shutting down one day a pay period then that's what they are going to get. (letter from the puzzle palace) :shock: If the congress is not going to allow them to manage the budget on a line item basis, No calling in one thing and doing another to keep things going at all costs. This in part is a reaction to the congress calling to exempting their services and aids from the cut because they are more important to solving the problem. ( Nancy Pelosi is protesting a possible Congressional pay cut for her and her staffers should a sequester deal not be reached prior to the March 1 deadline) There is an ancient Chinese curse " may you live in interesting Times" I think that's about to come true. they are going to follow Budget Sequestration and Selected Program Exemptions and Special Rules”–identifies certain programs that are exempt from sequestration and lays out special rules that govern the sequestration of others. - to the letter and let the chips fall where they may. I got to get me some popcorn because meetings have just got interesting.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

paperburn1
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Location: Third rock from the sun.

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by paperburn1 »

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42050.pdf#page=1
This is the exemption list, calm down and take a drink before you read it. Section 255 of the Budget Control Act includes “Compensation for the President” as one of those exemptions - so don't worry the president is safe and will be paid on time. Please remember any thing on the list including a solder / sailor salary can be removed by the committee.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Teahive
Posts: 362
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:09 pm

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by Teahive »

ladajo wrote:In any event, I was not trying to focus on loans in particular. I was trying to bring more light on the hidden costs over time that are easily missed in the first glance for any function of applied percentage recurring over time (compounding).

Percentage should be a measurement, not a mechanism.
I was not trying to focus on loans either. I'm just saying that compounding is simply what happens when you repeatedly perform a transaction that results in relative growth in a given amount of time. E.g. with a day-to-day savings account it makes sense to immediately add any interest paid to the saved amount, thus you earn interest on interest.

It seems to me that the hidden costs you mean are mainly in defaulting. And one might argue that paying down less than the interest should be considered a form of default. Certainly governments should never have been able to pile up the debt they have.

Interest rates are constantly adjusted to economic reality or expectations, so in that sense it is a measurement.

ladajo
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by ladajo »

Just got the word from our end of the pipe.The administration is expecting to maintain the level of service by working one day free per pay period and not close our doors. The military side of the house is in an uproar about this and has already put out the edict if they want to close essential services by shutting down one day a pay period then that's what they are going to get.
As I understand, federal work rules mandate that no work can go unpaid. The word I have seen is that there will be no acceptance of "free" work. If one is not paid, one must not be at work.
For military it gets squirrelly, as active duty is flat salary. So hours do not count.
I think there will be a major upraor and hell to pay if congressional employees are retained on full hours and pay when the DoD en mass takes a quoted 20% hit.

I think popcorn is in order. Good call.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

paperburn1
Posts: 2488
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 5:53 am
Location: Third rock from the sun.

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by paperburn1 »

ladajo wrote: The word I have seen is that there will be no acceptance of "free" work. If one is not paid, one must not be at work.
For military it gets squirrelly, as active duty is flat salary. So hours do not count.
I think there will be a major upraor and hell to pay if congressional employees are retained on full hours and pay when the DoD en mass takes a quoted 20% hit.

I think popcorn is in order. Good call.
That's what the COL in charge of the repair /rework facility said " no free work or work from home"
right now service members are on the exemption list but the list "could be modified by committee"
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

paperburn1
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Location: Third rock from the sun.

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by paperburn1 »

Plan number two from civ admin
Port side off on mondays
Starboard side off on Fridays
Half strengtht two days a week :roll: Wonder who is going to win? Where did I put that popcorn?
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

choff
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by choff »

Start from 1913 when the Fed was created for a reference point, throw in the WW1 debt, add compound interest over 100 years. Throw in WW2 debt plus 68 years of compound interest, and just for fun Vietnam war debt plus 40 years compound interest. As you can imagine, it starts to add up after a while. :shock:

But what makes it really fun is when the government gives the banks loans at 1% interest and they loan it back at between 3 and 4% interest like they do now! Doesn't anybody else on topic consider this a completely dumbass way to run a country!!!! Are there no comments from the peanut gallery!!!!! :roll:

If you have difficulty finding the principal, which is to say the actual shortfall in revenue over actual government spending, (and I don't mean money going to interest payments), that's because they deliberately bury those types of statistics. They do it that way in every budget in every country in the western world. You have these idiotic left/right debates and taxation vs spending cut debates to obscure the real problem, namely, government debt is very deliberately created so that the taxpayer can be used as a cash cow by private banks that lend to government. :cry:

The complaint that there isn't enough money in the entire world to finance government spending is equally meaningless, banks create that money out of thin air as needed, they couldn't give a darn how much this deflates the currencies value. Now, is the gross national debt a problem with government spending, or do you have a problem with compound interest?!?!?!?! :evil:
CHoff

Maui
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Location: Madison, WI

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by Maui »

choff wrote:But what makes it really fun is when the government gives the banks loans at 1% interest and they loan it back at between 3 and 4% interest like they do now!
3 to 4% is a lot better than the rate we'd get if the gov *didn't* offer these loans.

I can't figure out what you and ladajo are suggesting we do. Are you suggesting the gov control the rates at which banks can offer loans? If banks can't make a profit on loans, they are not going to offer them.

Please get it out of your head that you can erase the concept of compounding from economics; even if you could, it would still happen, we would only have lost the ability to describe/predict its effects.

Trying to blame the deficit on "compounding" is nonsensical. It's like complaining that gravity is making you weigh too much. To weigh less you should eat less and exercise more. To lower the deficit we should spend less and tax more.

ladajo
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by ladajo »

erase the concept of compounding from economics
Are you silly?

You can not erase the concept. But, you can certainly limit where it is applied as a mechanism.

As for the national debt. Apparently you have not been paying attention for the last decade or so. Also, please do not forget that interest payments also include interest on Social Security.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

KitemanSA
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Location: OlyPen WA

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by KitemanSA »

paperburn1 wrote:Plan number two from civ admin
Port side off on mondays
Starboard side off on Fridays
Half strengtht two days a week :roll: Wonder who is going to win? Where did I put that popcorn?
I bet that if asked, there would be a fair number of folk who would be more than willing to take two or even three days off per week, leaving some to work a full week if they need to. I know I would have, with pleasure.

Maui
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Location: Madison, WI

Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by Maui »

ladajo wrote:Are you silly?

You can not erase the concept. But, you can certainly limit where it is applied as a mechanism.

As for the national debt. Apparently you have not been paying attention for the last decade or so. Also, please do not forget that interest payments also include interest on Social Security.
I still feel like you are arguing with mathematics and cannot figure out what you are suggesting we do. Can you give me a specific example?

Let's say Uncle Sam stopped paying interest on bonds and instead just paid a flat 5$ for a $100 dollar bond every year. That solves compounding, right? Wrong. Say I have 20 bonds. After 1 year I will have made $100. What am I going to do with that $? Buy another bond of course. So next year how much will I earn? $105. Oops, compounding.

Okay, what if that company/gov of yours decided that rather than giving 3% raise every year, to just give a 50 cent/hr raise every year.

Year 1:
Entry level worker: $10/hr
Mid-level Manager: $20/hr
Executive: $50/hr

Year 20:
Entry level worker: $20/hr
Mid-level Manager: $30/hr
Executive: $60/hr

So originally the entry level guy made half as much as the mid-level guy. Now he makes 2/3rds as much. Opps, you've just raised his earnings compared to the mid-level guy. Worse, adjusting for inflation (which compounds whether you like compounding or not):

Year 20:
Entry level worker: $11.07/hr
Mid-level Manager: $16.61/hr
Executive: $33.22/hr

... and the manager/executive pay reduction is compounding over time. (won't be long before entry-level pay is less than it originally was as well)

Oh, wait, you meant that the flat yearly pay raise should be proportional to current pay? so:

Year 20 (let's say raises of $.60 or 3% per year)
Mid-level Manager at this company: $32/hr
Mid-level Manager at this company (with inflation): $17.72/hr
Mid-level Manager at the other company: $36.12/hr
Mid-level Manager at the other company (with inflation): $20/hr

I would say your business won't be in business much longer... unless you raise pay to match pay at competing companies. Whoops, compounding.

paperburn1
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Re: Sequestration: Yea or Nay?

Post by paperburn1 »

http://214.14.134.30/ebird2/ebfiles/e20 ... 17079.html
The craziest thing I have heard so far is command is telling people going to oki to bring shower curtains and toilet paper because there is a shortage on the island...
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

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