Stuff Libertarians OUGHT to worry about more than drugs.

[ladajo]

It is more than the resources. Although that is surely part of it.

For China it is about Nationalism. It is about giving the rank and file civs something to rally around that does not remind them of the corruption and inefficencies in the system, that they are getting the short end of the stick.

Think of Japan as China's equivilant to the Islamic Radicalist's America.

Unfortunately, the suppossed quote by the "Chinese professional" may just be right on the money. Although, I do wonder if China will make an East Sea grab or South Sea grab first.

One argument is to go after the East Sea as it puts Japan & Korea on the backfoot with intiative going to China. Possession being 9/10ths and what not.
However, China is also not dumb. And they full well know that the most capable militaries in the region are Japan & Korea in that order. A China grab might well be enough juice to get Japan & Korea to join up under an "enemy of my enemy" philosophy. But that said, it does not mean that China will get sucked in wiht a miscalculation.

Another argument is China makes the South Sea grab. This one is founded in the easy victim principle. Pick Vietnam or Phillipines or whoever, and China can make a go of it, and get away with it unless there is a third party intervention (The U.S.). The victims could really do nothing about it. That all said, the Chinese also would give up initiative in the East Sea, as surely Japan & Korea would take notice and react accordingly, if not grab the initiative themselves.

Of course in the middle of all this is Taiwan. I don't think anyone really knows how they would play. Certainly, it could all be a distraction to set up a final Chinese military grab there. Who knows. Stranger things have happened.

I think it is even money either way. But of one thing I am certain. And that is my opinion that China will make a pre-emptive grab for something at some point. They will either do it cold, or use some flimsy pre-emption excuse.

The bit the Chinese are probably uncertain over is U.S. reaction. Hard telling, not knowing. But of late, Obama Inc. has certainly sent some clear messages of lack of U.S. commitment. Just ask the Philippine government what they think about U.S. resolve right now. Treaty and all, even.

Shots will be fired. And probably by China first. If not, then they begged for it by making incursions or something and will claim full retaliation rights over it.

Popcorn anyone?

[ladajo]

I run into Yoji Koda every now and then. Really cool guy to talk with. Very down to earth.

Admiral Koda calls a Spade

[ladajo]

And here is the full write up on the Davos Chinese commentary:

Professional chinese man

[choff]

Maybe it's time to respond to China's moves by publishing a map of what China will look like after a U.S. retaliatory nuclear strike, plus a display of the weaponry that would be brought to bear in such an event. Nothing bellicose, just a plain presentation of the facts.

I don't blame the Chinese for being mad at Japan, given what happened at Nanking and all. They should be mindful however that the very worst case scenario for Fukishima over the next ten months would equal 1600 times Chernobyl. That level of mess would mean more of their own would die from radiation than conflict, it's better not to distract the Japanese from what should be the main focus of their attention, namely, the cleanup.

When I gave that 1600 times figure to my doctor, he asked if I'd seen 'On The Beach.' He said S. Argentina might be a good place but don't bring up the Falklands.

[Diogenes]

And here is the full write up on the Davos Chinese commentary:

Professional chinese man

Your link appears to go back to the original article. I Didn't see any information about the Chinese commentator.

[Diogenes]

I don't blame the Chinese for being mad at Japan, given what happened at Nanking and all. They should be mindful however that the very worst case scenario for Fukishima over the next ten months would equal 1600 times Chernobyl. That level of mess would mean more of their own would die from radiation than conflict, it's better not to distract the Japanese from what should be the main focus of their attention, namely, the cleanup.

For someone living in ~ Vancouver, I can see where you might regard that as an important priority.

[ladajo]

And here is the full write up on the Davos Chinese commentary:

Professional chinese man

Your link appears to go back to the original article. I Didn't see any information about the Chinese commentator.

Sorry, juggling too many balls today.

[Diogenes]

http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/5 ... h_fore.php

[paperburn1]

It is more than the resources. Although that is surely part of it.

For China it is about Nationalism. It is about giving the rank and file civs something to rally around that does not remind them of the corruption and inefficencies in the system, that they are getting the short end of the stick.

The bit the Chinese are probably uncertain over is U.S. reaction. Hard telling, not knowing. But of late, Obama Inc. has certainly sent some clear messages of lack of U.S. commitment. Just ask the Philippine government what they think about U.S. resolve right now. Treaty and all, even.

Shots will be fired. And probably by China first. If not, then they begged for it by making incursions or something and will claim full retaliation rights over it.

Popcorn anyone?

I believe the south sea option being most likely, China could seize certain islands in the chain without attacking the claimed territory of the Philippines or Malaysia, and that would leave the USA out on a limb regarding it involvement . In the last few years the Chinese navel exercise have changed from a response to Taiwan to a South Sea centered exercise. As per example the Kuayue '09 exercises . Couple that with the new shipbuilding going on and you can see a worriesome pattern.
The Spratly Islands are very rich fishing grounds and are thought to be rich in oil and natural gas, with some estimates being every high. Phosphate deposits are also believed to be present. All these thing are resources the Chinese crave.

[choff]

I see what Frederic Bastiat is describing as an error cascade that began with the introduction of the fractional reserve method to banking. Everything else spirals out from maintaining this Ponzi scheme at the very heart of the financial system.

[ladajo]

It is more than the resources. Although that is surely part of it.

For China it is about Nationalism. It is about giving the rank and file civs something to rally around that does not remind them of the corruption and inefficencies in the system, that they are getting the short end of the stick.

The bit the Chinese are probably uncertain over is U.S. reaction. Hard telling, not knowing. But of late, Obama Inc. has certainly sent some clear messages of lack of U.S. commitment. Just ask the Philippine government what they think about U.S. resolve right now. Treaty and all, even.

Shots will be fired. And probably by China first. If not, then they begged for it by making incursions or something and will claim full retaliation rights over it.

Popcorn anyone?

I believe the south sea option being most likely, China could seize certain islands in the chain without attacking the claimed territory of the Philippines or Malaysia, and that would leave the USA out on a limb regarding it involvement . In the last few years the Chinese navel exercise have changed from a response to Taiwan to a South Sea centered exercise. As per example the Kuayue '09 exercises . Couple that with the new shipbuilding going on and you can see a worriesome pattern.
The Spratly Islands are very rich fishing grounds and are thought to be rich in oil and natural gas, with some estimates being every high. Phosphate deposits are also believed to be present. All these thing are resources the Chinese crave.

Yes, but consider that the China watchers note that most all new Kit goes to the East or North Sea fleets.

I also think that the resource issue while before may have been a focal point, as well as securing "interior" lines such that they can go the prolonged fight, it is now being overshadowed by the government seeded nationalistic bent. Chinese leadership may well end up OBE in regard to the internal seeds they have sown, with catastrophic external results.

Chinese leadership is riding a wild horse they can not control well, and the cliff is ahead. I am not sure they even see the cliff given the focus on controlling the horse.

[paperburn1]

One thing I am very sure of is the current attitude and treatment of Japan is more about nationalism and pride building than anything else. Just like their successful space program(at least externally ) its like a , "look what we can do "show. I feel the internal problems with power generation, environment and rural population will be the big three that will cause them to focus inward rather than outward in the next few years. I do not think the economy can support double digit raises in military spending and china infrastructure spending for any long periods of times.

[ladajo]

The things you brought up are all internal audience targeted. External opinions are at best tertiary considerations.

Another point to consider is that spending growth and levels for internal security exceed that of military year by year.

Even the name of the lunar rover was picked completely based on internal audience considerations.

[Diogenes]

Obama Has Made it Impossible for Israel to Strike Iran

I called a hardheaded realist, a Harvard trained PhD who has been watching the Middle East professionally for decades, to ask him about Obama's Iran deal. This is what he told me.

It's done. Iran will get a bomb.

They want a bomb and they will not be denied unless somebody stops them. Obama does not want to stop them. He does not want a friendly regime in Iran. He wants Iran as a counterforce to America and Israel. Obama is not a Muslim, but he is a radical. He sees the U.S. and Israel as imperialistic and oppressive. He doesn't like the U.S. military. He'd cut it to nothing if he could get away with it.

The Iranians want the ascendance of Shia Islam. People don't remember, but when Ayatollah Khomeini took over, he sent Revolutionary Guards to Saudi Arabia and they seized Mecca. French paratroopers had to go in secretly and get them out. The Saudis couldn't do it themselves.

The Iranians want to take over Mecca and Medina. They want to take over the Arab world. With their nuclear weapons they will pressure Israel. They don't need to bomb them. They will test a nuclear bomb, they will send in missiles, they will issue threats, they will strangle them economically. Israel's high tech people will leave. They can do start-ups in Silicon Valley just as easily as in Israel; the weather is just as nice. Investments in Israel will dry up.

It's a very bad situation -- another great mess created by our glorious leader. We're going to have a nuclear Iran.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/01/ ... z2sBrCbl3h
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[williatw]

From your link:

Is regime change possible? The CIA could do it. We've done it before. You pay people to create labor unrest, strikes. The Iranian regime is tottering. It could be brought down. The mullahs do not trust the army. They're afraid their conscript soldiers won't fire on crowds, so they rely on Revolutionary Guards, highly paid, and on organized street thugs called the Basiji. But, you get one general to revolt and kill the political officers, make a public statement that "we must not harm the people." The Iranian people are not violent, they are not prone to riot, but a funeral leads to a demonstration, to more funerals and the protest grows. Only 55% of Iran is Persian, the rest are minorities, Arabs, Azerbaijanis -- you create problems. A truck of Iranian soldiers is blown up in the Azerbaijani region. It's not hard to do.
Iran could have a regime friendly to us. The people have experienced the mullahs; they are friendly to America, and even Israel. Under the Shah, Iran was friendly with Israel.

And if it turns out to be not as "not hard to do" as he believes? You prepared to send in hundreds of thousands of American troops over massive international objections to make sure we get/keep the right kind of Shah of Iran 2.0? Keep them in there for the years/decades it might take? Deal with the blow-back of Iranian inspired terrorist attacks against us being ratcheted up? Reinstate the draft to get the affordable size of the force structure we might need to make that sustainable? Draft middle/upper middle class white kids and use them that way in what would quickly be a very unpopular occupation? Deal with the resulting political unrest it might cause here as the aforementioned massively protest against the draft? Deal with whatever China would do in the meantime as we are so preoccupied? How about we get out of the Middle East instead? Try for energy independence (Fracking, tar-sands, off-shore drilling, raising fuel efficiency standards, etc.), let Europe and Russia worry about the Middle East. If they are to "weak", "socialist", "pacifist" etc. to deal with the problem of a nuclear Iran on their doorsteps, than to hell with them. Develop enough counter-terrorisms measures and SDI to protect ourselves, maybe share it with them if they are willing to pay for it, protect our own shores first, and divest ourselves of these "entangling alliances" (including NATO) the founders would have hated. Get back to the idea: Americans are friends of liberty everywhere, but custodians only of their own. – John Quincy Adams
http://maureenholland.wordpress.com/quo ... -the-ages/