How did we convert from horse and buggy to automobiles

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Aero
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Post by Aero »

That's what I thought he might be referring to but I didn't want to point out that that problem is a non-problem, because it is easily solved. It was one degree below zero F (-19 degrees C) this morning with ice everywhere. It took half an hour to get the car door open so I know about cold, too. I'm not about to drive in the cold without a heater and while heating the batteries will add expense, that is the accepted solution.

The standard solution is to use a gasoline burner heating a fluid which is circulated into all compartments where heat is needed. Yes, it uses an electric circulating pump, and the battery compartment, while insulated, does need a means to exhaust battery gases, but electric drive and a gasoline heater is still much more economical than pure ICE powered vehicles. Common solutions to drive the other accessories are separate electric motors for the A/C, power steering and vacuum boost brakes, but belt systems are also used. I'm not saying that's how the new car manufacturers do it, I am saying that's how it is accomplished with technology that is on the road now and working very satisfactorily.
Aero

Mike Holmes
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Post by Mike Holmes »

Perhaps easily solved, but by adding cost to the car. Or by making the consumer buy things to make it work in the cold. Either way, simply not quite as economical for us here. Delaying the day when these things attain mass-market drive.

My five to ten year estimate includes solving for these problems.

Mike

Aero
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Post by Aero »

Cost more? Well, only a little bit. Unless you don't need cabin heat. But if you don't need cabin heat, then you don't need battery heat either, most likely. If you have a heater, and I think all cars will, the extra it takes to heat the batteries is insulated heater hoses and a hot-plate or two to set the batteries on.
Aero

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Aero wrote:Cost more? Well, only a little bit. Unless you don't need cabin heat. But if you don't need cabin heat, then you don't need battery heat either, most likely. If you have a heater, and I think all cars will, the extra it takes to heat the batteries is insulated heater hoses and a hot-plate or two to set the batteries on.
Don't forget the regulators to prevent over heating. And the ability to switch in outside air for summer cooling. And the delay in winter while the batteries warm up. Because discharging cold batteries is hard on the chemistry. It also decreases storage capacity.

And also the necessity to heat all the cells to within 1 deg C or less (due to production variations) to make sure all the vehicles even in degraded condition come in at less than 3 deg C variation. And that is with lead acid or NiMH. Li Ion will need tighter control. Although do to its greater reactivity battery heat may not be required. Temperature equalization is another story.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aero
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Post by Aero »

The latest from China, BYD Co. - Open for business.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 308809.htm
Aero

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Post by MSimon »

Aero wrote:The latest from China, BYD Co. - Open for business.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 308809.htm
Lian said the production capacity for the new electric car could reach 10,000 a month and it would share the same production platform as that of gasoline-fuelled vehicles.
BYD had planned to sell the electric vehicles in the United States in 2010, but Wang yesterday told reporters that it will delay it until 2011, without giving reasons, according to a Reuters report.
Nothing mentioned about current production levels. The electronics suite of the vehicles, the amount of pre-production testing, estimated battery life, etc.

Toyota is probably lagging due to higher standards for market introduction. GM due to late entry. And FORD is probably holding back to let the others go through the teething phase for them.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aero
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Post by Aero »

I asked myself a set of similar questions and get similar answers, Simon. It may be that BDY Co. is rushing to the market, but as they have an unsatisfied automobile (of any kind) market, I expect they think they can get away with using their native population as a test bed. They are probably right, it wouldn't be the first time and they seem to have a supportive government.

How does that effect the US? It means that once they do start exporting these vehicle, they will have been "Road Tested." That is very important from a quality stand point, and means that when we see them, they will be reasonably good cars which we will more likely buy than we would otherwise. It also means that China gets the jump on the U.S. in saving their Oil Import money, boosted by auto export income. In other words, it fuels the Chinese economic powerhouse only because they are doing it and we are not.

The vehicle is priced equivalent to $21,400 in in Chinese currency. I would like to see that cost in man-hours, but unfortunately even the steel used has a large man-hour cost component making comparisons of labor content very difficult.
Aero

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Post by MSimon »

The Chinese power house is a mirage. Remember the Japanese power house?

The Chinese suffer from the same problems - industry is directed by the government. Right now they are closing semiconductor fabs.

The Chinese are dependent on the US market to a very large degree. Our downturn is going to hurt them worse than it does us.

Simon
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Mike Holmes
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Post by Mike Holmes »

Hmmm. Would Americans buy a Chineese car... ?

Nobody thought they'd buy more Japanese cars than American cars until it happened in the 70s. And we do buy lots of stuff made in China.

I wonder if there are American concerns behind this car. That is, most of the vast array of stuff we get here in America from China benefits Americans (in terms of the profits turned) more than it does Chineese. If it's entirely a Chineese outfit that would be... novel...

Mike

Aero
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Post by Aero »

Well actually, Warren Buffets outfit has invested quite a bit in BYD Co., so its not entirely Chinese.
Aero

Mike Holmes
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Post by Mike Holmes »

Had a funny feeling...

Mike

Aero
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Post by Aero »

MSimon wrote:The Chinese power house is a mirage. Remember the Japanese power house?

The Chinese suffer from the same problems - industry is directed by the government. Right now they are closing semiconductor fabs.

The Chinese are dependent on the US market to a very large degree. Our downturn is going to hurt them worse than it does us.

Simon
The government controls on Chinese industry have relaxed a great deal in the last decade. The central government is still communist but it is more a capitalist economy than a planned economy.

Thinking "Chinese Communist" leads us to overlook another thing about their economy. That is, we overlook the fact that the wealth distribution within the Chinese population follows the same rules of human nature as it does in the U.S. That is, 80% of the wealth is controlled by 20% of the people with the other 20% of wealth distributed across the other 80% of the people. But, because the Chinese population is something on the order of 1.3 billion people, the wealthy 20% number around 260 million people, nearly the same as our total population.

These 260 million wealthy Chinese are good consumers of Chinese goods and services, including automobiles. (I have visited China 7 times in the last 7 years.) They spoil their babies rotten, their teenagers want computers, cell phones and cars. And their parents want to keep up with the neighbors down the street. Actually, in China, it is the neighbors on the higher floors of the building that they want to keep up with, because the higher up in the buildings one lives in China, the higher the status. The reason is simple, the higher up, the better the view, the lower the street noise, and the fresher the air. But the ultimate status symbol seems to be to drive a big Audi and employ a Filipino maid. The Chinese know that their air stinks and are very aware that cars cause air pollution. They also know that electric cars have no tailpipe emissions. I expect that BYD Co. will enjoy a good local market for their electric cars and the bigger they make them, the more popular they will be. (With caveats about poor performance and quality of course.)
Last edited by Aero on Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Aero

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Aero,

I'm not thinking Communist economy. I'm thinking directed economy. Think Japan and MITI.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Aero
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Post by Aero »

MSimon wrote:Aero,

I'm not thinking Communist economy. I'm thinking directed economy. Think Japan and MITI.
And what I'm telling you is the the Chinese economy is now directed more by the market forces of capitalism than most Americans seem to imagine.
Aero

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Post by MSimon »

Aero wrote:
MSimon wrote:Aero,

I'm not thinking Communist economy. I'm thinking directed economy. Think Japan and MITI.
And what I'm telling you is the the Chinese economy is now directed more by the market forces of capitalism than most Americans seem to imagine.
How does it compare to Japan?
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

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