http://www.weatherquestions.com/Global- ... al-PDO.htm
Since the paper peaked my interest, I downloaded the data and played with it myself. Here is the PDO Index data I downloaded.
![Image](http://home.comcast.net/~charlesz/pdor_files/image004.gif)
Using ONLY these data, I was able to make a reconstruction of twentieth century warming completely based on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Below is a graph I created. The pink plot is the actual temperature record. The blue plot is my reconstruction.
![Image](http://home.comcast.net/~charlesz/pdor_files/image008.gif)
Pretty sick.
Don't get me wrong. I am no scientist. In fact, I am not very smart. I don't write well. I make many mistakes. Obviously, I am making a fundamental mistake in being able to show such a strong corellation.
I think my fundamental mistake (and Roy Spencer's) is in how I am treating the PDO Index. The PDO Index is, after all, derived from measurements of temperature. Now, the index pruports to remove the global warming signal by subtracting mean global temperature anomalies but I don't really understand the process. Probably, the warming is still in the data somehow and my method gets at it.
So, whoever wants to help me out or has any interest, please find the holes in what I did for me.
My reconstruction basically starts at a historical temperature and adds or subtracts a little bit to it each year depending on whether the PDO is in a warm or cool phase. I tweak the threshold of the PDO Index value I consider to be a warming and cooling and I tweak the amount of yearly warming and cooling each represent. From this I get a plot that is a good fit to the temperature record but lacks the spikes. Then I add the yearly PDO Index data back in (scaled) to show the decadal oscillations in temperature. I get a pretty crazy fit.
Remembering what I said about not being smart and not writing well, and understanding that I was just putting down a flow of conciousness rather than trying to create a good scientific paper, please take a look at my description of my entire process here and give me any feedback you want:
http://home.comcast.net/~charlesz/pdor.htm
The spreadsheet I used is referenced from this link as well.
Thanks,
seed