Skipjack wrote:Yeah, but it is a democracy. If the people there decide they want a islamic fascist state ala Iran after the next election, they can vote for it and they will get it.
That is my fear. As I said, things have gotten much more radical in the middle east over the last years.
I am very concerned.
1. Iraq got a taste of hardliner rule. They have been inoculated for 10 or 20 more years.
2. As long as the economy keeps growing the attraction to the jihadis is not going to be strong. In the midst of this really bad downturn Iraq is growing around 4% a year.
Support for the jihadi parties in the last election was around 16% IIRC.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Support for the jihadi parties in the last election was around 16% IIRC.
You think that is little? I think that is already pretty close to bad.
With 20% they could become interesting as coalition partners in a government. That might give them the indirect way to power.
Most other middle eastern states have seen a wave of increased religiosity in the last few years. Despite an economic growth in the region. So much actually, that it even got to much for their current leaders (which in case of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are anything but progressive).
Look up about the argument about the full veil in these countries.
I find this development a reason for concern. It means that economic growth is not necessarily a good factor to measure liberalisation from religion.
Support for the jihadi parties in the last election was around 16% IIRC.
You think that is little? I think that is already pretty close to bad.
With 20% they could become interesting as coalition partners in a government. That might give them the indirect way to power.
Most other middle eastern states have seen a wave of increased religiosity in the last few years. Despite an economic growth in the region. So much actually, that it even got to much for their current leaders (which in case of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are anything but progressive).
Look up about the argument about the full veil in these countries.
I find this development a reason for concern. It means that economic growth is not necessarily a good factor to measure liberalisation from religion.
Conditions change. Habits follow. Patience.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Skipjack wrote:Well Chem and bio do need a certain kind of equipment for handling, storing it, etc, or your workers will end up being victims of your chem and bio weapons.
Yes and no - there was plenty of Russian protective gear found also. And in its liquid unmixed states, a lot of chem warfare agents aren't as bad as the more toxic industrial chemicals. Heck, chlorine's shipped in railroad tank cars, but it was used in WW1 as a chem warfare agent. (And besides, OSHA wasn't allowed in Iraq - so what if there were a few bodies to bury? Lots of sand out there, and nobody who would dare complain if the head of the family didn't come home one day.)
So what really happened?
One theory was that the military had been telling Saddam for decades that he had a CBW capability, but it was literally a case of telling him what he wanted to hear. That insured survival. Telling him that he DIDN'T after the first few years you DID (and Saddam DID use chem/bio on his own people in '88-89) was a one-way ticket to the shredders.
But as you said - it doesn't much matter at this point except to historians.
When opinion and reality conflict - guess which one is going to win in the long run.
It is not that far above replacement (about 2.5) in the places that matter and it is declining.
Be careful with that assumption. Strangely enough they seem to have more children when they move to countries that are not moslem dominated, like Austria.
It is not that far above replacement (about 2.5) in the places that matter and it is declining.
Be careful with that assumption. Strangely enough they seem to have more children when they move to countries that are not moslem dominated, like Austria.
Newcomers have a higher birth rate. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with their culture. The birth rate declines over time as groups become established.
But as you said - it doesn't much matter at this point except to historians.
And treasure hunters/storytellers.
It'll be great. Another decade or two, and people will be telling the tale ofthe long-lost NBC weapons treasure trove, buried somewhere out there in the infinite desert.
Newcomers have a higher birth rate. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with their culture. The birth rate declines over time as groups become established.
Not here. In fact the second generation is in no way different from the first here. They actually speak a worse German than the first generation.
LOL
Newcomers have a higher birth rate. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with their culture. The birth rate declines over time as groups become established.
Not here. In fact the second generation is in no way different from the first here. They actually speak a worse German than the first generation.
LOL
I've seen both patterns here.
Some groups are not interested in integrating. I still think it will happen, eventually, but it takes longer than the second/third generation timespan that many immigrant groups seem to diffuse in. It may be promoted by racism/cultural superiority attitudes of the host culture, or racism/cultural superiority attitudes of the immigrants. Groups that immigrate because they wanted to and they had the money to do it may be more likely to accept their host culture. Those that have bouncedd around a few countries as chronic refugees may be less likely. There are probably many other factors.
In some Austrian and German elementary schools, 90% of the children do not speak German well enough to follow a normal lesson. They need special care and attention.
20% of all Austrian students (of all levels) do not speak German well or at all.
But as you said - it doesn't much matter at this point except to historians.
And treasure hunters/storytellers.
It'll be great. Another decade or two, and people will be telling the tale ofthe long-lost NBC weapons treasure trove, buried somewhere out there in the infinite desert.
Well, Saddam's regime buried MiGs, so it's not terribly unlikely that there's bunkers that didn't get found. Heck, take a couple-dozen 53 ft trailers and you can store a lot of stuff under the sand.
Time - and the drifting sands - will eventually tell.
When opinion and reality conflict - guess which one is going to win in the long run.