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Diogenes
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Post by Diogenes »

MSimon wrote:
Diogenes wrote:
MSimon wrote: It takes real genius to turn blunders to advantage.
A smarter genius wouldn't make the blunders in the first place. He would turn his advantage to GREATER advantage! :)
Ah. Another believer in the perfectibility of a man. Let alone all men.

You work with the talent you do have not the talent you wish you had.

I am pretty sure that a lot of people realized what the consequences would be from disbanding the army and firing and blackballing all Sunni workers from government. What is absolutely baffling to me is why all of those war college graduates didn't make an issue of it? Had I been an officer with the ear of Paul Bremer, I would have argued with him till I was thrown out of his office, and then I would have done everything I could think of to convince the White house this was a BAD idea!

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Depends on the orders they were given:

Rebuild the country with those imbued in the old politics or a fresh start?

I have always felt that when dealing with Nazis (the Baath Party - you can look it up) a fresh start is the best - even if it costs.

What was the objective? Replace Saddam? Or try to start the ME on the way to self government?

Which is to say you are not taking grand strategy into account.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Diogenes
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Post by Diogenes »

MSimon wrote:Depends on the orders they were given:

Rebuild the country with those imbued in the old politics or a fresh start?

I have always felt that when dealing with Nazis (the Baath Party - you can look it up) a fresh start is the best - even if it costs.

What was the objective? Replace Saddam? Or try to start the ME on the way to self government?

Which is to say you are not taking grand strategy into account.

It is difficult to weigh costs vs benefits when the costs are the lives of your countrymen. Would we have ever lost so many lives to terrorism?

Apart from that, my initial perception of the peoples of Iraq is that the shite's are dumber and less capable than the sunnis, and that is why the smaller number of sunnis were running the country in the first place. So far I have seen nothing to change that initial assessment.

If that is indeed the case, then the Sunnis are going to be running everything eventually anyways, so why not start working with them from the beginning and avoid all the bloodshed?

And again, I perceived at the time (and history appears to exonerate my thinking on this) that it was far more important to the long term stability of this nation and the world to prevent the Democrats from getting into power in this country. Likewise, the threat that Iran poses.

Had the peace been secured right after the war, it would have seriously mitigated the hatred aimed at Bush, and likewise the spendthrifyness of the Republican congress. It would have further enhanced the credibility of those who say that Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon, as well as the resolve of this nation to do something about it.

I would suggest that my perception of the grand strategy is not lacking, but instead that it just differs from what others see. I say the grand strategy would have been served far better by not picking an unnecessary fight with those whom we need to actually bring stability to Iraq.

bcglorf
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That's getting a little long in the tooth.

Post by bcglorf »

Rebuild the country with those imbued in the old politics or a fresh start?

Sorry, but that's not a be all end all trump everything point, despite your apparent belief to the contrary.

The appointment of American government administrators with no knowledge of the country has nothing to with old politics and a fresh start.

Old politics and a fresh start are NOT excuse and carte blanche to willfully run head first in total and complete ignorance.

Taking the experience and knowledge of people who could find Iraq on a map before hand and using that to come to the conclusion that a fresh start was best is a good plan. That was NOT what happened, despite your insistent belief to the contrary.

As I pointed out very clearly before, Bremer's administration consisted of people even MORE ignorant of Iraq than himself. People so ignorant they didn't even know what the Anfal was. Would we really be better off to go back and rebuild Germany exclusively with administrators chosen from those so ignorant they hadn't even heard of the holocaust? It's utter madness!

And of course we won (for now) despite our ineptness.

If that isn't tongue in cheek but an honest admission of the ineptness of very many decisions than I can agree. I would also point out that the we taking the credit is almost exclusively assigned to the Military and local Iraqi's, and decidedly not anyone higher up in to the American administration who did everything in their power to make a near impossible situation worse.

hanelyp
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Post by hanelyp »

Keeping the old Iraqi army may have provided a ready indigenous police force. But within the ready force would have been elements who knew no better way to 'keep the peace' than mindless brutality, and elements that we simply couldn't trust. By the time you've vetted and retrained the Iraqi army properly, there's not much difference from rebuilding from scratch.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Old politics and a fresh start are NOT excuse and carte blanche to willfully run head first in total and complete ignorance.
Except that war is a government program. Of course it will be done stupidly. The best you can hope for is that the enemy is stupider.

In the case of Iraq we turned the stupidity to our advantage. About as good as you can reasonably expect.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Diogenes
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Post by Diogenes »

hanelyp wrote:Keeping the old Iraqi army may have provided a ready indigenous police force. But within the ready force would have been elements who knew no better way to 'keep the peace' than mindless brutality, and elements that we simply couldn't trust. By the time you've vetted and retrained the Iraqi army properly, there's not much difference from rebuilding from scratch.

Except for the fact that you didn't put all the malefactors on guard by announcing their dismissal en masse. The difference is the bloodshed. By letting them all think they were secure, the worst could have been weeded out slowly, and the rest would have tolerated it without starting an insurgency.
Not only that, but the ones kicked out would serve as negative examples to the remainder, and would thereby encourage them to behave.

Announcing the dismissal of all, gives them a common cause and a common opportunity, which they used to deadly purpose against us.

It was as predictable as the sunrise. I said when I heard they were contemplating it that "The army wouldn't simply disappear. It would reform with a resolve to see us dead and leaving. And THOSE are the guys who know where all the weapons are! "

Diogenes
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Post by Diogenes »

MSimon wrote:
Old politics and a fresh start are NOT excuse and carte blanche to willfully run head first in total and complete ignorance.
Except that war is a government program. Of course it will be done stupidly. The best you can hope for is that the enemy is stupider.

In the case of Iraq we turned the stupidity to our advantage. About as good as you can reasonably expect.

"God looks after drunks, fools, little children, and the United States."


Had al qaeda not been so fanatical and oppressive, then nothing we were willing to do would have worked. It is al qaeda who turned their sunni allies against them. `It was arrogance to think we could suppress an entire population of 25 million using such a small force without resorting to the brutal tactics of Saddam. (or Genghis Khan)

Bush and Bremer behaved as though they were conquerors, without having the guts to do horrible things to dissenters. If you cannot brutalize them into submission, you will have to win their cooperation. There is no other way.

The lesson here is, Do not command people as a conqueror unless you are willing to behave like one.

bcglorf
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Post by bcglorf »

MSimon wrote:
Old politics and a fresh start are NOT excuse and carte blanche to willfully run head first in total and complete ignorance.
Except that war is a government program. Of course it will be done stupidly. The best you can hope for is that the enemy is stupider.

In the case of Iraq we turned the stupidity to our advantage. About as good as you can reasonably expect.
As long as your willing to call a great deal of the decisions made stupidity instead of 'planning' or any other euphemisms I think we are pretty well agreed. On the highest level, when you go to war you've got to expect ridiculously stupid things to be done by various people from the top down. My objections were purely around not whitewashing our own stupidity. Just because the stupidity was expected, doesn't mean that the worst of it shouldn't be accounted for later. Abu Ghraib may have been a comfy weekend spa compared to Saddam's rape rooms, but it was still beneath us. The kind of thing we can condemn without in any way compromising support for the invasion and removal of Saddam. In fact, I'd argue refusal to condemn failures of that level does compromise support for Saddam's removal.

CaptainBeowulf
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Post by CaptainBeowulf »

Except for the fact that you didn't put all the malefactors on guard by announcing their dismissal en masse. The difference is the bloodshed. By letting them all think they were secure, the worst could have been weeded out slowly, and the rest would have tolerated it without starting an insurgency.
Not only that, but the ones kicked out would serve as negative examples to the remainder, and would thereby encourage them to behave.
That would have been more or less the approach I would've taken with the Iraqi army. It is a legitimate thought experiment though to consider whether this would have been better in the long run than starting from scratch.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

By letting them all think they were secure, the worst could have been weeded out slowly
Which runs the risk of them "infecting" the new lot. Better a clean slate.

Of course we only know the troubles we bought with our policy. We have little idea of the troubles we avoided. You can't rerun history.

In 1936 Britain and France only knew the troubles they avoided by not going to war with Germany over the Rhineland. It was not until 1945 that the full cost of avoiding trouble was understood.

In the case we are discussing we will never know what the alternative would have looked like.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »

I just love the way my thread on general gov't incompetence and the lack of experience in the Obama Administrations was hijacked for yet another indictment of the long gone Bush Administration. Guess what. the Bush administration is over. Whatever happened then is over as well. Frankly the problem I'm worried about have been festering for a long time and most of the problems involved in the Bush adminstration, Paul Bremer come from the same source, a too small talent pool that draws from a very limited class of idiots. If you liked the minerals guy you will just love the guy that the Obama Adminstration wants to run your health care:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2Kevz_9lsw

The real problem is that we have had, since the 1930's a class of people, who just by the virtue of where they went to school, believe they have the right to control every aspect of our lives:
http://spectator.org/archives/2010/07/1 ... ss-and-the
Frankly, I've met enough people who went through the blue and red Ivy Covered Snob factories to be unable to understand why anybody would trust them to run anything more than a lemonade stand. The problem is that these clowns are monsterously incapable and incompetent. We've been down this road before over and over again and the results have never been good:
http://ironicsurrealism.blogivists.com/ ... struction/
These idiots have been taught from baby hood that they are better than the rest of us. they have been indulged and driven by their parents to believe themselves, smarter, better and just all around cooler than us schlubs without parents planning from birth to set them up the "right " way. these are the people who most of hated in high school. but make no mistake they have appointed themselves the ruling class. That is not a good thing.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Jccarlton,

When debating these mopes on the internet and they don't know my pedigree (college) I get nothing but derision.

If I do mention it I get respectful disagreement.

Which basically corresponds to your observations.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

WizWom
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Post by WizWom »

MSimon wrote:When debating these mopes on the internet and they don't know my pedigree (college) I get nothing but derision.

If I do mention it I get respectful disagreement.

Which basically corresponds to your observations.
Heh. If the guy seems to have his head screwed on tight, I listen to what he say, whether he's from a cow-college or MIT.

But if he sounds like a whack-job from the get go, I'll be more harsh.

You're no whack-job, and that's not hard to see.
Wandering Kernel of Happiness

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