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With an energy source like polywell available directed energy weapons become a practical reality and one can shoot down almost anything (be it missiles or simple artillery shells or even bows&arrows) currently in use. I can see two ways for weapons to adapt: either by stealth (to make them harder to detect) or by employment of speed and mass (as impact weapons or to shield the warheads). I don't think reliable stealth in the atmosphere can be done.
Polywell based weapons can be put on mobile platforms (easy for ships, harder for land-based units, very hard for airplanes). As those can be moved around specific attacks from very far (to gain the speed-mass) would not work well.
Someone mentioned orbital death-rays. Unless the force building them already dominates the earth - those are tactically sitting targets - won't work. Also I assume hidden surprise buildup on the moon is unlikely (that's why everyone is going there now to make sure others don't get to dominate it), that means the main dissipators of attacks will be earth-based.
What about the MAD? All the superpowers have to do is to build stealthy launch platforms and place them in high earth or probably solar orbits. Retaliation will take couple of days or maybe even weeks, but the enemy cities will be leveled one way or another.
So how will the "conventional" warfare look like? I predict doom to high-flying warplanes in most situations. Helicopters might still have a chance as they can use the terrain better to hide from the direct view of the enemy death-rays. As for the big guns. Overwhelm the enemy. Mobility matters. Nothing that new here I guess. We'll see death-ray against death-ray battles between mobile units.
So what do you think, does that make sense, what could really happen?
- Indrek