Extra-salty sea

[alexjrgreen]

The total volume of the world's oceans is (very) roughly ten million times the size of 100 gigatonnes of melted ice.

[KitemanSA]

but it is not a volumetric change issue, it is a surface comparison. What is the relative volume considering only the top cm of the oceans? Does the melt add .01cm? .1cm? 10cm?

But all in all, a concur with JLawson's statement.

[MSimon]

Estimates for East Antarctica vary from a yearly gain of 100 Gigatonnes to a yearly loss of almost 50 Gigatonnes.

Estimates for West Antarctica vary from a yearly loss of 30 Gigatonnes to a yearly loss of 280 Gigatonnes.

Shouldn't the ocean rise put a bound on the numbers?

Sea level rise is currently dominated by thermal expansion. Glacial meltwater volumes have been small by comparison.

With the PDO going negative we should be in for 20 to 30 years of cooling. (at least 10 more according to IPCC estimates - some solar guys say 50 years of cooling).

If heating does resume in 10 years wind and solar may very well be cost effective by then.

[alexjrgreen]

With the PDO going negative we should be in for 20 to 30 years of cooling. (at least 10 more according to IPCC estimates - some solar guys say 50 years of cooling).

If heating does resume in 10 years wind and solar may very well be cost effective by then.

The warming of the Arctic is happening much faster than these other processes would suggest, so may well be due to pollution reducing the reflectivity of the ice.

Diesel fumes from ships don't help, but coal fired power stations in Asia are a more likely cause.

Unless this is resolved, even 50 years of cooling may not be enough to prevent the total collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet...

[MSimon]

With the PDO going negative we should be in for 20 to 30 years of cooling. (at least 10 more according to IPCC estimates - some solar guys say 50 years of cooling).

If heating does resume in 10 years wind and solar may very well be cost effective by then.

The warming of the Arctic is happening much faster than these other processes would suggest, so may well be due to pollution reducing the reflectivity of the ice.

Diesel fumes from ships don't help, but coal fired power stations in Asia are a more likely cause.

Unless this is resolved, even 50 years of cooling may not be enough to prevent the total collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet...

Well take it up with the Chinese. American CO2 has declined by a few percent with the economic melt down. China will be at 2X American by 2020 maybe sooner. It has already surpassed 1X.

Of course if CO2 is an effect (warming oceans) and not a cause you may be wasting your time. Especially if a cooling era reduces plant food in the atmosphere.

But I get your point.

It is worse than we thought.

And next year we will have definite proof that it is worse than that. And the year after? Well there is really no limit to how much worse it will be thought.

BTW are you aware of how much worse the models are than we thought? They neglected to add the PDO in (known since 1997) and so missed predicting the current cooling. What else are they leaving out? Could it be worse than we thought?

[chrismb]

Diesel fumes from ships don't help, but coal fired power stations in Asia are a more likely cause.

My previous comment.. likely a cooling contribution..

viewtopic.php?t=1425

[alexjrgreen]

I'm largely unexcited by the arguments over CO2 - we now have the technology to capture it if we need to.

I also don't give a whole lot of weight to the models - consider them a work in progress.

The recent warming of the Arctic is real, and is already causing the release of methane from clathrate deposits. That's a feedback loop you probably don't want to tangle with.

[alexjrgreen]

Diesel fumes from ships don't help, but coal fired power stations in Asia are a more likely cause.

My previous comment.. likely a cooling contribution..

viewtopic.php?t=1425

Particulates at high altitude certainly result in cooling, but when they fall on ice they decrease it's reflectivity, causing it to absorb more solar radiation.

[chrismb]

Particulates at high altitude certainly result in cooling, but when they fall on ice they decrease it's reflectivity, causing it to absorb more solar radiation.

It's a SO2 aerosol so is not a 'sooty' particulate that would cause what you describe. Marine diesel can be up to 5% S content!

[alexjrgreen]

Particulates at high altitude certainly result in cooling, but when they fall on ice they decrease it's reflectivity, causing it to absorb more solar radiation.

It's a SO2 aerosol so is not a 'sooty' particulate that would cause what you describe. Marine diesel can be up to 5% S content!

And perhaps 30% carbon...

[MSimon]

I put some ice in a drink this past summer and within an hour it was melted. Just think if this happened to Greenland or the Arctic. It might be a lot worse than we thought.

I know what we have to do to make it all right. Get the Earth out of the interglacial and get it back to normal ice age conditions.

====

http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-chan ... cle-186634

EU environment ministers yesterday (21 October) said the new climate agreement to be reached in Copenhagen should correct an important omission in the Kyoto Protocol by tackling continuously rising emissions from planes and ships.

====

I wonder how many hundreds of millions will have to die for Lebensraum uh I meant CO2. Slip of the keyboard. Pay no attention.

[alexjrgreen]

I wonder how many hundreds of millions will have to die

50 million people die every year...

[chrismb]

I wonder how many hundreds of millions will have to die

50 million people die every year...

Meaning that, given a global population of 6.8billion, so the average age at death for all people is 136 years old. Cool....! The average age at death in UK is around 78, so that means there is likely a country somewhere about the size of UK where the inhabitants life expectancy is, on average, 194 years old.

(Sorry, just feel like 'playing numbers' this evening!! )

[MSimon]

I wonder how many hundreds of millions will have to die

50 million people die every year...

I'm glad to hear that cutting the use of CO2 producing fuels by 80% will result in no deaths.

Tell you what. I propose we let the Euros set an example and if it works for them we can extend it to America. After all the Euros have had experience with mass murder so if it comes to that they can very well deal with it.

And of course the "we didn't know" line is well practiced and should be easy to resurrect.

I'm looking forward to the Euros taking the lead in Copenhagen and forging ahead no matter what the rest of the world does. It will be truly inspirational.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union there has been a dearth of societies committed to their own suicide. Good to see the Euros stepping up to the plate.

You need a slogan. I propose "80% NOW" because if you are right there is no time to waste. And for the radicals among you "100% NOW" as evidence of real commitment.

And don't tell me it can't be done. As you freeze to death think of the Greenland ice you will be saving. What an inspiration!!!

But all is not lost. You can burn your pets to stay warm:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/21/s ... l-warming/

[alexjrgreen]

...

A veritable feast of straw men...