10KW LENR Demonstrator?

[sparkyy0007]

Hello All
I am new to this group but have been following this topic for a while, very interesting discussion most of which is over my head.
Here is my take on this:
Rossi has indeed succeeded and most of his claims are likely true.
For them to be false would indicate a scam and skill in excess of the many scientists who validated the calorimetry, which is unlikely.
The scientists involved in the validation must have been exceedingly skeptical at first light given the implications of this. Their careers are on the line with a false positive.
I am also of the opinion the real ground work was laid by Piantelli and Rossi's efforts were engineering.
From the information in Piantelli's paper, the excess heat was very substantial with a relatively small active surface area, little more than a pencil sized rod. Given the same conversion rate with nanoparticle or even micron sized particles would account for the heat in Rossi's device.
Patent lawyers aren't stupid either and to properly prepare the patent they would have been given full disclosure. They would also have been aware of Piantelli's work and suggested patenting the secret sauce if it existed. This would have afforded Rossi much better protection.
If Rossi tries to keep it a trade secret, that will last him maybe a year before the feverish research going on right now catches up to him, and it will.

[Giorgio]

For them to be false would indicate a scam and skill in excess of the many scientists who validated the calorimetry, which is unlikely.

If you have been following this thread you should have clear by now that no calorimetry has been done till date, let alone "validated".

For the rest, if he really will release a product I give it less than 6 months before the market will be flooded by chinese imitations.

[raphael]

Hello All
I am new to this group but have been following this topic for a while, very interesting discussion most of which is over my head.
Here is my take on this:
Rossi has indeed succeeded and most of his claims are likely true.
For them to be false would indicate a scam and skill in excess of the many scientists who validated the calorimetry, which is unlikely.
The scientists involved in the validation must have been exceedingly skeptical at first light given the implications of this. Their careers are on the line with a false positive.
I am also of the opinion the real ground work was laid by Piantelli and Rossi's efforts were engineering.
From the information in Piantelli's paper, the excess heat was very substantial with a relatively small active surface area, little more than a pencil sized rod. Given the same conversion rate with nanoparticle or even micron sized particles would account for the heat in Rossi's device.
Patent lawyers aren't stupid either and to properly prepare the patent they would have been given full disclosure. They would also have been aware of Piantelli's work and suggested patenting the secret sauce if it existed. This would have afforded Rossi much better protection.
If Rossi tries to keep it a trade secret, that will last him maybe a year before the feverish research going on right now catches up to him, and it will.

Rossi's patent lawyers may not be as dumb as some believe them to be. There may be amendments/clarifications in the pipeline as we speak. Ditto for subsequent filings.

Some smart fellers on this thread are totally dismissive of demos which numerous credible sources find highly convincing. Hint, when you've got a reactor that's about the size of a thumb drive that can boil away large volumes of water and run for many hours (days/months?) on end, you don't need an ultra-sophisticated setup in order to comprehend the major implications.

[ltgbrown]

you don't need an ultra-sophisticated setup in order to comprehend the major implications

But you do need one to rule out "unintended" sources of energy, provide the necessary data to support theory development and validation, and support replication and verification. As has been stated, "when you've got a reactor that's about the size of a thumb drive that can boil away large volumes of water and run for many hours (days/months?) on end" you better be darn sure and that only comes with an ultra-sophisticated setup.

I hope he is right, but I am on the fence. The reason I am on the fence; why has he not done an ultra-sophisticated setup?

[KitemanSA]

Kiteman,
OK. Six years from the first demonstrated transistor to a transistor INDUSTRY.

Over twenty years from P&F to no industry. In fact no working power plant of any dimension.

I'm not saying that 6 years is enough for LENR. What I am saying is that over 20 years seems excessive.

Do you think that the folks who demonstrated the transistor were forced to do so, WAY before its time by glory (and government largess) seeking IDIOTS? If the announcement you tout for transistors were comparable, some "Dean of Natural History" would have been claiming the world's problems were solved back in 1925.
P&F believed they had the beginnings of a glimmering of a new, unexplored phenomenon, not much different than the 1925 "patent" level transistor work. They were "outed" by idiots. Comparing the too "announcements" is ludicrous. Apples and aardvarks.
At this point, there MAY be an appropriate analog between the transistor announcement and the Rossi announcement. Both were claimed to be working commercial product prototypes, no? But you aren't even willing to afford Rossi the benefit of the doubt for the "six years" between announcement of a working commecial prototype and an industry. Not even ONE has gone by and you are claiming a scam. This suggests a totally closed mind on the issue.
There are too many indicators from too many different directions regarding this general area (CF/LENR/what have you) to make a categorical statement of anything but OPINION.

[KitemanSA]

I hope he is right, but I am on the fence. The reason I am on the fence; why has he not done an ultra-sophisticated setup?

Cost?

There would be any number of simple, unambiguous demonstrations that could be made. The exact set-up would of course be dependant on just what temperature this thing can run reliably at.

The most sophisticated parts would be a "still" with a Gortex seperator and a battery driven AC power system (common household inverter, etc.).

Make a comparison of two loops where identical units are placed side by side except that one unit is run with NO hydrogen. The selection of which gets and doesn't get H would be determined by coin flip at the very last minute. Each loop would consist of a "reactor" heating a heat engine of some sort (selected wrt the anticipated output temperature) generating power to restore the battery that is the ONLY source of electricity for the systems. Excess electricity (if any) would be passed thru a resistor, being measured on the way. (But lets face it, if there is excess, this thing has pretty much proven itself, no?) The cold side of the heat engine would dump into the flash distiller wherein the Gortex seperator would assure that ONLY steam got thru to the condensor side. The heat would be measured by the volume of the condensate. The demonstration would continue for several weeks or until both sides stopped. There should be an OBVIOUS difference in the duration of the run.

Because these things are supposed to be only middling reliable, the demo would be run for as many tries as it takes for one side to accept the stance of the other.

[MSimon]

Do you think that the folks who demonstrated the transistor were forced to do so, WAY before its time by glory (and government largess) seeking IDIOTS?

WAY before? More like about 6 months to a year. So OK. Let us say P&F were rushed by 2 years.

Subtract 2 from 21. I believe (if I get the differentials correct) that would be 19 years. So now we have 6 vs 19 rather than 6 vs 21.

Does that change my argument significantly?

Rossi at least GETS that hole in the argument and is promising a 1 MW plant by October. Come October the delays will start. In a year they will still be delaying. In 3 years many of the faithful will be losing hope. In 5 years it will be declared a scam by many believers. But by then a NEW EXPERIMENT will be available and it will be off to the races again.

So what does the "power plant" gain Rossi? The ability to raise larger sums of money. He is not just doing EXPERIMENTS he is building a POWER PLANT.

[Giorgio]

I hope he is right, but I am on the fence. The reason I am on the fence; why has he not done an ultra-sophisticated setup?

Cost?

Overly complicated if cost is an issue.

As stated before:
Wattmeter in line to power supply
Flowmeter in line with water inlet
Two temperature probes, one inlet one outlet,
NO BOILING, just a nice DeltaT of 60C.

Total cost? More or less 500 USD.

Clean, easy and not objectionable.

[raphael]

Lt Brown:

Rossi is a businessman seeking commercialization. A person like that will have a very different mindset/perspective than a professor at a university. Reportedly, the only reason that Rossi agreed to a public demo of any sort was that his amigo (the elderly Dr. Focardi) wanted it to happen.

Here's a rumor for you: The academic boys at the university at Bologna have done some more rigorous (and very convincing) testing and are preparing (or, have prepared) a paper for peer-reviewed publication in a recognized scientific journal. Just a rumor....

[MSimon]

And what did the "premature" revelation of P&F gain us?

A LOT more people in the field. Actively working. i.e. 10X the effort and more brains looking at it.

BTW even if it was premature P&F claimed a WORKING MODEL.

So where is the industry?

In 1948 a WORKING transistor was announced. By 1954 there was a transistor INDUSTRY.

So what are you saying then? That what P&F did doesn't WORK?

I'm down with that.

[MSimon]

these things are supposed to be only middling reliable

By 1954 we had a very good transistor theory. And they were being reliably made in the 10s of millions or more.

We are 21 years on from P&F and still no good theory. Well we do have some candidates - finally.

By 1955 there was a whole new line of work - silicon vs germanium and diffused vs point contact. Based on a reliable theory. In 1960 I was building stuff in my basement with CK722s. Where is my "cold fusion" water heater?

[GIThruster]

Sail theory is about 6,000 years old. It wasn't until about 1-400 AD however, that the lateen sail appears, and it did not become common until about 1400 AD. All this despite sailing was the most common and important means of bulk transport used throughout the world.

How long it takes a technology to become common or industrial is not a function of the technology itself. What happened with transistors has very little to do with what has happened with other technologies, nor what will happen in the future, IMHO.

[tomclarke]

Do you think that the folks who demonstrated the transistor were forced to do so, WAY before its time by glory (and government largess) seeking IDIOTS?

WAY before? More like about 6 months to a year. So OK. Let us say P&F were rushed by 2 years.

Subtract 2 from 21. I believe (if I get the differentials correct) that would be 19 years. So now we have 6 vs 19 rather than 6 vs 21.

Does that change my argument significantly?

Rossi at least GETS that hole in the argument and is promising a 1 MW plant by October. Come October the delays will start. In a year they will still be delaying. In 3 years many of the faithful will be losing hope. In 5 years it will be declared a scam by many believers. But by then a NEW EXPERIMENT will be available and it will be off to the races again.

So what does the "power plant" gain Rossi? The ability to raise larger sums of money. He is not just doing EXPERIMENTS he is building a POWER PLANT.

Yes, it is difficult to see why anyone would rush to mass production until they have a proven & robust working lower power unit. The dash for cash worries me.

Also worrying is that he states on his blog that Ni64, Ni62 are needed beacuse the more common isotopes don't work. Therefore his fuel is enriched with these. There are then many questions about price, etc. And why this enrichment was not noticed by the Swedish team who analysed his material...

Of course, his grasp of theory may be totally wrong and inconsistent. But he must know whether or not he enriches his fuel?

[seedload]

The enrichment only costs 10% more. Another miracle!

[KitemanSA]

Do you think that the folks who demonstrated the transistor were forced to do so, WAY before its time by glory (and government largess) seeking IDIOTS?

WAY before? More like about 6 months to a year. So OK. Let us say P&F were rushed by 2 years.

Source? Do you have any indicator that they were a year or two away other than reports of their "feelings" at the time? Sounds like a number that was rectally extracted by someone. A reporter, P-or-F, you?

None the less, let us ASSume that it is correct. Would an announcement when they were READY, whenever they were ready, have been met unanswered with the such venom? Might said venom, which has been OBVIOUS in many "debunkers" have delayed further progress by a number of years becasue they were unready to answer it? How many years? Will you extract another random number?

Subtract 2 from 21. I believe (if I get the differentials correct) that would be 19 years. So now we have 6 vs 19 rather than 6 vs 21.

Random numbers on random conclusions.

Does that change my argument significantly?

Nope, still nonsense.

Rossi at least GETS that hole in the argument and is promising a 1 MW plant by October. Come October the delays will start. In a year they will still be delaying. In 3 years many of the faithful will be losing hope. In 5 years it will be declared a scam by many believers. But by then a NEW EXPERIMENT will be available and it will be off to the races again.

So what does the "power plant" gain Rossi? The ability to raise larger sums of money. He is not just doing EXPERIMENTS he is building a POWER PLANT.

MSimon replaces Karnak the magnificent in prognostication. Wonderful. YOUR OPINION is...

I have started the clock, your six year clock, and if in six years there is nothing remaining of Rossi, I will agree that Rossi was wrong. I may even have enough info at that point to conclude whether it was self delusion, fraud, or nefarious influence. But that may never be clear.